State politics have dominated the news lately. Last week,
Californians recalled their state's governor less than one year
after he had been re-elected to a second term. This was the
manifestation of an extremely low level of trust in Gov. Gray
Davis, but also a lack of confidence in state government more
generally.
A recent Gallup Poll on trust in state and local government
reveals several interesting phenomena. Trust in state government
has declined significantly in the last two years, not only in
California, but in the nation more generally. During the same
period, trust in local government has held steady.
Americans' willingness to express trust in their own state's
government is related to the match between their own partisanship
and the party holding the governorship. Republicans are more likely
to say they trust their state government when a Republican presides
over the state, while Democrats are more likely to do so when a
Democratic governor is in office.
Also, the amount of trust Americans place in their local
government depends in part on where they live -- in urban, rural,
or suburban areas. For the first time in Gallup's data, trust
varies by place of residence, with those in urban areas expressing
a lower level of trust than those in suburban or rural areas.
Trust in State Government
The 2003 Gallup Governance poll*, conducted in September, found
53% of Americans saying they have either "a great deal" (12%) or "a
fair amount" (41%) of "trust in the government of their state when
it comes to handling state problems." This is down significantly
from 2001, just prior to Sept. 11, at which time 65% had at least a
fair amount of trust in their state government. Prior to that,
trust had been at the 80% level around the time President Bill
Clinton was impeached in December 1998. The current level of trust
in state government is the lowest Gallup has measured since
1972.
One reason for the decline is likely the recent political storm
in California. That state accounts for slightly more than 10% of
the population of the United States, and consequently about that
percentage of each Gallup Poll sample. Trust in state government
among Californians was exceedingly low in this poll, with just
about one in eight having a great deal or fair amount of trust in
state government. However, trust in state government still shows a
significant decline from 2001 to 57% among the residents of all
states other than California.
Generally speaking, the widespread decline in trust probably
owes a great deal to the budget difficulties most states are
currently enduring. A slow economy for the last few years has led
to decreased state revenue, while at the same time demands for
state services (such as unemployment compensation) have increased.
Most states are required to have balanced budgets so they are
unable to borrow against future revenues, as does the federal
government. Additionally, federal legislation often requires states
to implement new policies or standards without providing any
federal funds to help with that implementation.
Partisanship Influences Trust
On the national level, Americans' attitudes toward government
and the general course of the nation are heavily influenced by
their partisanship, with conditions in the country rated more
positively by Democrats when a Democrat is in the White House and
more positively by Republicans when a Republican is in the White
House. For example, Gallup data show that trust in the presidency
is greatly affected by one's partisanship, and in 2003, Republicans
were much more likely to express trust in the executive branch of
the federal government than Democrats were. An in-depth look at the
trust in state government data reveals a similar phenomenon.
Overall, Republicans (including independents who lean
Republican) and Democrats (including independents who lean
Democratic) exhibit similar levels of trust in state government,
55% and 53%, respectively. Similarly, there is little difference in
trust between respondents residing in states where there are
Democratic (51%) and Republican (55%) governors (the Democrat
figure is depressed somewhat by Californians' responses).
However, Americans differ in the amount of trust they put in
state government depending on the match between their own
partisanship and the party that currently holds the governorship in
their state. At the time the poll was conducted (prior to the
California recall), there were roughly equal numbers of Republican
(26) and Democratic (24) governors in the United States. A special
Gallup analysis shows that in states in which a Democrat is
governor, 58% of the citizens of those states who personally
identify as Democrats have a great deal or fair amount of trust in
state government, compared with 44% of Republicans (both
percentages are significantly depressed by Californians' ratings;
taking California residents out leaves trust in Democratic-led
states at 66% among Democrats and 55% among Republicans).
Conversely, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to
say they trust their state's government if they live in a state
with a Republican governor (69% for Republicans and 46% for
Democrats).
Trust in Local Government
In contrast to what is observed with state government, trust in
local government has not changed since 2001. Prior to the current
reading, the trend line on trust in local government has closely
followed that for state government. Thus, the divergence found in
the most recent poll is notable.
The data also show some interesting variation in trust in local
government. While more than 7 in 10 Americans living in suburban
(71%) or rural (73%) locations have a great deal or fair amount of
trust in their local governments, only 58% living in urban areas
do. [NOTE: These differences are not due to the situation in
California. When California's numbers are removed from the sample,
the results are virtually the same.]
These results represent a change from prior years. For example,
in 2001, roughly 7 in 10 Americans in urban (71%), suburban (66%),
and rural locations (70%) had at least a fair amount of trust in
their government. In 1998 and 1997, there was also little
difference in trust in local government by area of residence.
This may result from budget problems plaguing large cities, many
of which offer extensive social services to local residents.
Additionally, budget woes of larger cities are more likely to draw
media attention than those in smaller communities.
Bottom Line
The recent update on trust in local and state government reveal
some interesting differences. It is not clear, however, if trust in
subnational government experienced a similar spike to what was
observed in trust in national government following Sept. 11.
Clearly, partisan forces that influence how one views national
government operate below the federal level, and many Americans
appear to be cognizant of the difficulties being faced by their
state and local governments.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025
national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 8-10, 2003. For
results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say
with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is
±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 480 Republicans and
independents who lean to the Republican Party, the maximum margin
of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 470 Democrats and
independents who lean to the Democratic Party, the maximum margin
of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 448 Americans living in
states where a Republican is governor, the maximum margin of
sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 575 Americans living in
states where a Democrat is governor, the maximum margin of sampling
error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 256 Americans living in urban
areas, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage
points.
For results based on the sample of 536 Americans living in
suburban areas, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5
percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 233 Americans living in rural
areas, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage
points.
