In response to a rising death toll and increased attacks on
American troops in Iraq, the U.S. military went back on the
offensive last week. The goal is to curtail Iraqi insurgence as the
country undergoes transition to a new government. To date, more
than 420 American soldiers have been killed in Iraq -- 281 since
President Bush declared an end to major combat in May.
The possibility of a prolonged, guerrilla-style military
conflict in Iraq, combined with the continued U.S. military efforts
in the war on terrorism, are straining American military reserves
-- and raising some speculation about the necessity of reinstating
the military draft. However, a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup
poll* shows a vast majority (80%) feel the United States should not
return to the military draft at this time. Just 17% say the United
States should return to the draft.
The Trend in Context
Gallup has asked Americans this question several times over the
last 20 years; the resulting trend data reveal several interesting
points about support for the draft. First, it seems that support
for the idea was stronger just prior to the current war with Iraq
than it is now. The 17% of Americans who currently say that the
United States should return to the military draft is a significant
decrease from the 27% who felt this way in January 2003.
The most recent findings are closer to the results from the
summer of 1998, when 16% of the population wanted to bring back the
draft. The United States and Iraq were at odds even then over
allowing U.N. weapons inspectors into Iraq.
In 1980, more than half of Americans (59%) thought a return of
the draft was necessary, probably in response to the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan that prompted President Jimmy Carter to
reinstate Selective Service registration that year.
Who's Most Likely to Support the Draft?
The idea of returning to the military draft is more likely to be
supported by Americans over age 50 -- those most likely to remember
the draft, but least likely to have to serve today. Twenty-five
percent of Americans over the age of 50 support the draft. On the
other hand, only 11% of 30- to 49-year-olds want to see the draft
return, as do just 9% of 18- to 29-year-olds**, the age group most
likely to be affected by a reinstitution of the draft.
*These results are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, aged 18 and
older, conducted Oct. 24-26, 2003. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
**These results are based on telephone interviews with 421
national adults aged 18 to 29, conducted Oct. 24-27, 2003. For
results based on the total sample of 18- to 29-year-olds, one can
say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is
±5 percentage points. These include 192 interviews with 18-
to 29-year-olds done as part of random national samples Oct. 24-27,
2003, and 229 interviews with 18- to 29-year-olds conducted Oct.
24-27 who had previously participated in national Gallup Polls in
2003 and who agreed to be re-contacted by Gallup for future polls.
The combined data from these samples are weighted to be
demographically representative of the 18- to 29-year-old population
in the United States.
