GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PART I: MOOD OF AMERICA
Introduction
PRINCETON, NJ -- The 2000 presidential election season begins in
earnest this coming Monday with the Iowa caucuses, to be followed
in short order by the New Hampshire primary on February 1, and then
with a cascading series of additional primaries in states across
the country. By the time the smoke clears, both major political
parties will have selected their presidential nominees, and the
race will move on to the conventions this summer and into the final
stretch this fall.
The Gallup Poll has interviewed over 4,000 Americans across the country over the last three weeks -- asking about Americans' candidate preferences, their views on the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, and their generalized mood and feelings as the new millennium begins.
This summary reviews the findings from these interviews, and describes where the voters of the country stand as the election gets underway: what their mood is, who they are supporting at this point, what the major issues are that appear to be driving the election, the characteristics and qualities of the candidates that are making a difference, and the voters' views on the election process itself.
This review looks at the election at the national level, providing a backdrop to the individual state caucuses and primaries that are now beginning to unfold. Although a great deal of attention is being paid to these caucus and primary states -- particularly Iowa and New Hampshire -- the overall vote of Republicans and Democrats across the country as it is played out in each state is what will ultimately determine the nominees. The race, as it stands now, has two very strong front-runners in both parties -- George W. Bush on the Republican side and Al Gore on the Democratic side -- and the key focus will be on whether or not the vote in the early primaries will have an impact on their status among voters elsewhere across the country. The national Gallup Poll data presented below provide insights into this possibility, and provide a benchmark against which future changes can be compared.
Americans in ebullient mood at beginning of 2000
election year
Americans seem unusually positive as the election 2000 primary
season begins, with large majorities expressing satisfaction with
the way things are going in the country at this time, and more
specifically with the state of the nation's economy. This largely
positive view seems to have spilled over into the political realm
as well, with a surge in public approval for the president and the
U.S. Congress, along with unusually high levels of optimism and
enthusiasm for this year's election.
Overall satisfaction with the country is now at 69%, statistically tied with the level expressed last year -- 71% -- right after President Clinton was acquitted by the Senate in his impeachment trial. In the past two decades, satisfaction has reached as high as 66% on just two other occasions: during the height of American success in the Persian Gulf War, and in early 1986 during good economic times when President Reagan was in office, several months before the Iran-Contra scandal became public.
With rare exceptions, such as the Persian Gulf War, overall satisfaction with the country seems to be most strongly related to the state of the economy, and today Americans are as happy with the economy as they have been in many years. Gallup's trend on this issue goes back to 1992, when President Bush lost his re-election bid during economic times that were widely perceived to be poor. Today, the mood is strongly upbeat, with 83% of Americans satisfied with the state of the nation's economy, 71% rating the economy as excellent or good, 69% saying economic conditions are getting better rather than worse, and just 14% expressing serious worries over their own personal economic situation. By contrast, in late 1992 and early to mid-1993, only 25% of Americans were satisfied with the state of the economy, just 18% rated the economy as excellent or good, only 29% felt that economic conditions were getting better, and 35% of Americans expressed serious worries about their own financial situation.
Political Optimism Surges
The generally positive mood of Americans and their satisfaction
with the economy may account for the unusually high level of
optimism and approval they express about politics as well.
President Clinton's approval rating of 63% is several points higher
than it has been in recent months, when it fluctuated in the high
50s. Similarly, approval of Congress is considerably higher now at
51% than it has been over much of the past year, when it fluctuated
between the high 30s and the low 40s. The Republican Party has
fully recovered from the negative reaction of the public to the
impeachment hearings, with 56% of likely voters now favorable
toward the GOP, virtually tied with the Democrats' favorability
rating at 58%. And by a margin of 49% to 31%, voters say that they
are more enthusiastic about voting this year than they usually
are.
Political Implications of Positive Mood Not
Evident
Since the 1980 presidential campaign, when Ronald Reagan asked
Americans whether they were "better off or worse off" after four
years of the Carter administration, with the public's negative
answer a key explanation for Reagan's election, that question has
become a major focus of political analysts. This year, a whopping
73% of Americans say they are better off than they were eight years
ago, while just 19% say they are not -- a figure that, combined
with all of the other measures of a positive public mood in the
country, should in theory give Vice President Al Gore an electoral
boost as he campaigns to replace Clinton as president. But despite
the positive public mood, Gore trails both Texas Governor George W.
Bush and Arizona Senator John McCain in the presidential election
race, and fares worse against these two candidates than does former
New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. Apparently, any economic and other
accomplishments that have occurred in the past eight years are not
being directly translated into strong support for a Gore
presidency.
Americans, Positive About Presidential Candidates
This Year, Are Enthusiastic About Voting and Appear to Be More
Interested in Vision and Leadership Than in Stance on
Issues
Americans' overall satisfaction with the way things are going in
the country today, and their overwhelming satisfaction with the
state of the economy, is apparently spilling over into a state of
contentment with the presidential election process. Voters are
quite satisfied with the presidential candidates they have seen
running for office so far this election cycle, and say that they
are more enthusiastic about the election this year than they have
been in previous years. This satisfaction may explain the fact that
Americans -- particularly Republicans and independents -- say they
are more interested this year in a presidential candidate's
leadership and vision than in his stance on particular issues.
This Year, Most Americans Think at Least One
Candidate Would Make Good President
Regardless of the particular candidate they are supporting,
Americans -- at least as the year begins -- seem quite optimistic
that they can find what they are looking for in a president among
the candidates who are currently vying for the position. When asked
a recent Gallup poll, conducted January 7-10, if "there is any
candidate running this year that you think would make a good
president," 75% of the population says yes. This sentiment holds
true across the political spectrum.
These feelings of contentment with the presidential field this year stand in sharp contrast to attitudes in January 1992, when, in response to the same question, only 40% of Americans said yes. Indeed, this general dissatisfaction with the candidates in 1992 opened the door to the third-party candidacy of Ross Perot, who went on to lead the polls at times during the spring, and eventually, despite dropping out of the race and then getting back in, garnered about 19% of the vote in November 1992.
This year, voters are not only happy with the presidential choices they see before them, they are also much more satisfied with the way things are going in the country, and much more satisfied with the U.S. economy than they have been in previous years, reinforcing the possibility that the opportunity for a third-party candidate to make significant headway with the electorate may be limited.
About half of likely voters also say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than usually, while 31% say less enthusiastic. Additionally, two-thirds of likely voters say that if the election comes down to Al Gore and George W. Bush, they would be satisfied -- higher than the percentage of voters who answered a similar question in the affirmative when asked about front-runners Bill Clinton and Bob Dole in 1996.
Voters Seek Vision and Leadership More Than
Particular Issue Stances
A good deal of the presidential campaigning last year and early
this year has been given over to issues, with candidates issuing
various tax cut and health care plans, and responding to specific
and in-depth issue questions across the various debates being held
in the early primary states.
Americans, however, seem more interested in the style and leadership capabilities of the candidates than their positions on the issues. Fifty-four percent of likely voters interviewed in the January 7-10 poll chose "leadership skills and vision" as being more important than "where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you" -- chosen by just 36%.
This tilt towards the broader presidential characteristics may in part be due to the fact that few burning issues are consuming the American electorate as this election year begins. As noted, about seven out of ten Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time, a near-record figure for the last 20 years. Additionally, Americans are highly satisfied with the economy and think that it is going up rather than down.
Which candidate can best take advantage of the public's desire for a president with leadership and vision remains to be seen. The poll shows that Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to feel that vision is important, while Democrats are more likely to say that the issues are important to their vote:
| Republicans | Independents | Democrats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leadership and Vision | 54% | 54% | 44% |
| Stance on Issues | 33 | 33 | 42 |
| Both Equally | 13 | 12 | 11 |
Most Republicans end up voting for Republican candidates and most Democrats end up voting for Democratic candidates, meaning that the role of independents (about a third of the general population; somewhat less in the likely voter electorate) in today's presidential elections is very important. Because independents tilt significantly towards the "leadership and vision" perspective on candidates, it may be that savvy candidates in the general election this fall may tilt away from a focus on issues and more towards their overall vision for the future of the country.
Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide who to vote for -- [ROTATE: Where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you (or) the leadership skills and vision you think the candidates would have as president]?
| Stance on the issues | Leadership skills and vision | Both equally (vol.) | Neither (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||||
| (LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 36% | 51 | 12 | 1 | * |
| National Adults | |||||
| (NA) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 37% | 49 | 10 | 1 | 3 |
Next we have some questions about the 2000 presidential campaign. Please try to answer each question based on what you may have heard or read so far about the campaign and the candidates. First, … . Next, … . [random order]
| Yes | No | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Does it make a real difference to you who is elected president, or not? | |||
| 2000 Jan 7-10 | 80% | 20 | * |
| 1992 Jan 6-9 | 82% | 17 | 1 |
| C. Is there any candidate running this year that you think would make a good president, or not? | |||
| 2000 Jan 7-10 | 75% | 16 | 9 |
| 1996 May 9-12 | 57% | 39 | 4 |
| 1992 Oct 23-25 | 68% | 28 | 6 |
| 1992 Sep 11-15 | 61% | 32 | 7 |
| 1992 Apr 20-22 | 47% | 44 | 9 |
| 1992 Jan 6-9 | 40% | 41 | 19 |
If Al Gore and George W. Bush become the Democratic and Republican nominees for president this year, would you be satisfied with that choice, or not satisfied?
| Satisfied | Not satisfied | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||
| (LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 67% | 31 | 2 |
| National Adults | |||
| (NA) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 70% | 28 | 2 |
| (NA) 1996 Jan 12‡ | 56% | 40 | 3 |
‡ Question wording: "If Bob Dole and Bill Clinton become the Republican and Democratic nominees for president this year, would you be satisfied with that choice, or not satisfied?"
Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?
| More enthusiastic | Less enthusiastic | SAME (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Likely Voters | ||||
| (LV) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 49 | 31 | 19 | 1 |
| National Adults | ||||
| (NA) 2000 Jan 7-10 | 43 | 38 | 17 | 2 |
| (NA) 1998 Oct 9-12 | 35 | 47 | 16 | 2 |
| (NA) 1999 Aug 21-23 | 38 | 41 | 17 | 4 |
| (NA) 1998 Apr 17-19 | 30 | 48 | 19 | 3 |
| (NA) 1994 Nov 2-6 | 38 | 48 | 13 | 2 |
| (NA) 1994 Oct 7-9 | 34 | 46 | 18 | 2 |
(LV) = Likely voters
(NA) = National adults
* = Less than 0.5%
(vol.) = Volunteered response
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PART II: THE PRIMARY RACES
As Primary Season Begins, Bush and Gore Maintain
Leads for Their Party's Nomination
Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore are
maintaining their dominant national leads as the front-runners for
their respective parties' presidential nominations as the caucuses
and primaries begin, and the race for the nominations has
essentially boiled down to long-shot attempts within both parties
to dislodge these two candidates who have formidably powerful
positioning.
There has been no lack of publicity about the candidates over the past weeks and months. The presidential campaigns have been in full swing in the early primary states, with resulting stories about the candidates leading the national newscasts, on the front pages of newspapers across the country, and on the covers of the newsmagazines. Additionally, a series of nationally televised debates have been conducted throughout last month and this month.
Gallup's most recent poll, conducted January 17-19, shows that the majority of Americans now say they know enough about the major candidates of each party to have an opinion about them:
| Favorable Opinion | Unfavorable Opinion | Don't Know Enough About to Have an Opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | 56% | 38 | 6 |
| Bill Bradley | 56% | 18 | 26 |
| George W. Bush | 66% | 26 | 8 |
| John McCain | 51% | 17 | 32 |
The two front-runners, Al Gore and George W. Bush, are well-enough known that over nine out of ten Americans are able to express an opinion about them. The two second-place candidates, Bill Bradley and John McCain, are less well known, but about seven out of ten Americans are able to venture an opinion of each of these candidates.
One factor worth noting is this: the public has generally positive opinions about all four of these candidates. Gore and Bush, who have the most visible images as the front-runners for their parties' nominations, also have the highest unfavorables, but both still have significantly more positive than negative images. For Bradley and McCain, the ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinions is even higher.
In terms of preferences for the two major party nominations, there has been little significant change during the past year in how Americans across the country feel. Bush was established as his party's front-runner in early Gallup surveys conducted in 1998, and has not lost that status since. Gore, the sitting vice president, also moved quickly to the top spot among his party's faithful as surveying of Democrats began last year, and in similar fashion, has not faltered significantly since.
Bush gets 63% of the vote of registered Republicans nationwide in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted January 17-19, which is almost identical to the percentage he has received in polls going back to last August. Despite the fact that Arizona Senator John McCain ties or leads Bush in polls in New Hampshire, he is in distant second place nationwide, with only 19% of the registered Republican vote. Over the past year, there has been some change in the second tier of candidates in the Republican race. Elizabeth Dole moved into a strong second-place position last spring, but she faded through the summer. Then, when Dole and other high-profile candidates such as Dan Quayle and Pat Buchanan dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination last fall, McCain became firmly established as the second-place contender. But once that change occurred in the fall, there has been little additional change. Whatever gains McCain has achieved in New Hampshire have not yet translated into greater strength among Republicans nationwide -- something that will have to occur if McCain is to have any chance of sidetracking the Bush juggernaut steaming towards the nomination.
Magazine publisher Steve Forbes has also been unable to generate any increase in support among Republicans, getting only 6% of the vote in the latest poll, down slightly from 9% in late December. The three other candidates who have been included in most Republican debates this month -- Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, political commentator Alan Keyes and former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer -- each get only 1% to 2% of the Republican vote.
Among Democrats, Gore has increased his lead over Bradley to a 60% to 27% margin. The Democratic race has fluctuated somewhat in recent months, with Bradley coming as close as 12 percentage points in early October, but Gore's percentage of the Democratic vote has generally been in the 50-60% range throughout the past year, while Bradley has never been able to climb out of the 30% range. Like McCain on the Republican side, Bradley's failure to gain on Gore among Democratic registered voters nationwide stands in contrast to Bradley's stronger showing in New Hampshire, where polls have shown his support to be much closer to Gore's level than is the case nationwide.
Another way of looking at the candidate's potential strength in the primaries is to examine the responses to a question that asks voters, regardless of their current preference, how likely they might be to vote for other candidates.
Are you certain to support [PREFERENCE IN OWN PARTY'S PRIMARY] for the Democratic/Republican nomination or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else for the nomination?
| Certain to support | May change mind | No opinion | Number of interviews | Margin of error | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | |||||
| Al Gore | 54% | 42 | 4 | 380 | +/- 6% |
| Bill Bradley | 34% | 62 | 4 | 188 | +/- 8% |
| George W. Bush | 55% | 42 | 3 | 427 | +/- 5% |
| John McCain | 45% | 52 | 3 | 106 | +/-10% |
Over half of the Republican and Democratic primary voters whose first choice for their party's nomination is George W. Bush or Al Gore, respectively, say that they are certain to support them. On the other hand, only a third of the Democrats whose first choice is Bill Bradley say they are certain to support him, suggesting additional potential strength for Al Gore. John McCain's supporters are a little more certain in their vote for him; 45% say they will stick by him no matter what. All in all, while these data suggest that mathematically it is possible that Bush and Gore could lose their party's nomination (if all of those who say they might change their minds actually end up doing so), it would be a very long-shot proposition in both cases. A scenario in which a candidate who is enjoying 60% of his party's vote at this point in January yet ends up losing the nomination by the summer is one that has a low probability of occurring.
Should Bush and Gore end up as their party's nominees, as seems likely at this point, it would be not an upsetting situation to most Americans. When asked, "If Al Gore and George W. Bush become the Democratic and Republican nominees for president this year, would you be satisfied with that choice, or not satisfied," 67% of likely voters and 70% of the total American adult population interviewed earlier in January say that they would be satisfied. (Democrats would be just about as satisfied as Republicans.) By way of contrast, only 56% of Americans -- when asked a similar question in January 1996 -- said that they would be satisfied if then-front-runners Bill Clinton and Bob Dole were to become the Republican and Democratic nominees in that year.
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PART III: HOW ISSUES & CANDIDATES SHAPE THE ELECTION
Bush Dominates Republican Race Across All
Demographic and Geographic Subgroups; McCain Does Only Slightly
Better Among Older, More Upscale Republicans
Texas Governor George W. Bush has a formidable lead over his
challengers in the race for the Republican nomination for president
across all geographic regions of the country and among Republicans
in all major ideological and demographic subgroups. A special
Gallup Poll analysis of Republican voters interviewed in four
separate surveys in November and December shows that Bush's
extraordinarily strong lead is remarkably constant regardless of
the personal characteristics of the Republicans interviewed.
Arizona Senator John McCain -- Bush's closest competitor -- gets
less than one-fifth of the Republican vote overall, and does only
slightly better among older Republicans, those with higher levels
of education and income, and among men.
Across the entire sample of 1,548 Republicans interviewed in the last two months of 1999, Bush has a lead of 64% to 16% over McCain, followed by 7% for businessman Steve Forbes, and 3% or less of the Republican vote for Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, political commentator Alan Keyes, and former Family Research Council President Gary Bauer.
Conservatives No Different From Other Republicans in
Their Support for Bush
A number of Republican candidates have made a play this year to the
conservative wing of the Republican Party -- attempting to position
themselves as having a particular appeal to the group perceived as
most likely to turn out to vote in the primaries as the election
season gets underway. The data show, however, that conservative
Republicans are very little different from all other Republicans in
their support for Bush. Sixty-four percent of Republicans who
identify themselves as conservative support Bush, compared to 61%
of moderates and 69% of liberal Republicans (who constitute a small
percentage of all Republicans). It is only among those who identify
themselves as very conservative Republicans (about 10% of the
total) that Bush's support is a little lower, at 58%. Alan Keyes
breaks into double digits among this group, with 11%, to tie
McCain, followed by Bauer with 5% and Forbes, who has targeted
conservatives in his campaign strategy, with only 5%, less than his
overall total vote of 7%.
Geographically, Bush does best in the Southwest -- with 80% of the vote -- bolstered by a strong showing in his home state of Texas. Bush does somewhat less well in New England, at 57%, and in the Rocky Mountain states, where his 53% of the vote is the lowest of any of the census regions used in this analysis. Senator Orrin Hatch gets 12% of the vote in the Rocky Mountain region -- which of course includes his home state of Utah.
Despite His Personally Privileged Background, Bush's
Appeal Is Slightly Higher Among Less Well-Off
Republicans
George W. Bush comes from a wealthy family, received an Ivy League
education at Yale and Harvard, and went on to become a millionaire
in Texas by virtue of his investment in the Texas Rangers baseball
team. Still, the Texas governor's support is slightly less strong
among Republicans with higher levels of education and income than
it is among those less well off. Among those with no college
degree, Bush pulls in 71% of the vote, but gets "just" 55% among
those with graduate degrees. Former Naval Officer and war hero John
McCain does best among the latter, upscale GOPers, getting 27% of
the vote among those with graduate degrees (compared to the 16% he
gets overall), and 22% among those whose household income is
$75,000 a year or more.
McCain, whose military background might be expected to exert a masculine appeal, does only slightly better among Republican men, with 20% of the vote, compared to the 12% he receives from women. McCain also does better among older Americans -- with 23% of the vote among Republicans 65 and older, compared to only 10% among the youngest Republicans, aged 18-29.
Republican Situation Much Different From Democratic
Primary Race
The remarkably consistent strength of Bush across all regions of
the country and among all types of Republicans can be contrasted
with the situation among Democrats. Demographic and geographic
characteristics make an enormous difference in the propensity of
Democrats to indicate support for Vice President Al Gore or former
New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. Bradley -- who is behind by 18
percentage points overall in the November/December sample of
Democrats -- actually beats Gore in New England and comes close in
the Pacific states. Bradley also ties Gore among men with college
educations.
| George W. Bush | John McCain | Steve Forbes | Orrin Hatch | Alan Keyes | Gary Bauer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Total | 64 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Men | 62 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Women | 66 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 18-29 | 67 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 30-49 | 63 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 50-64 | 68 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 65+ | 58 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Postgraduate | 55 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| College Grad | 63 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Some College | 61 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| No College | 71 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| $75,000+ | 61 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| $50,000+ | 63 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| $30K-<$50K | 64 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| $20K-<$30K | 64 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Under $20K | 66 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Very Conservative | 58 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 5 |
| Conservative | 65 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Total Conservative | 64 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Moderate | 61 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Liberal | 69 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| New England | 57 | 24 | 7 | 2 | -- | -- |
| Mid-Atlantic | 62 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Midwest | 61 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Southeast | 66 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Southwest | 80 | 6 | 6 | -- | 3 | 1 |
| Rocky Mountain | 53 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| Pacific | 63 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Gore and Bradley appeal to sharply different
constituencies within the Democratic Party. Gore's voters tend to
be traditional Democrats, while Bradley appeals to independents who
lean Democratic, men, whites, those with high socioeconomic status,
and particularly to those living in the
Northeast.
Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley,
the two major contenders for the Democratic nomination for
president, appeal to extraordinarily different types of Democrats,
a new special Gallup Poll analysis shows. Gore's voters tend to be
traditional Democrats -- older, living in the South, minorities,
those with lower levels of education and income, and women.
Bradley's constituency is skewed strongly towards certain
geographic areas of the country -- particularly the Northeast --
and also towards independents who tend to vote Democratic, whites,
men, and those with higher levels of education and income.
This analysis is based on an aggregated sample of 1,631 Democrats who are registered voters and who were asked about their first choice for the Democratic nomination in four different Gallup surveys conducted in the months of November and December 1999. Overall, 55% of this group said they would prefer Gore, while 37% said Bradley.
Bradley Scores Best Among Younger White
Men
Some of the largest differences between Gore and Bradley are based
on standard demographic categories. Gore has over twice the lead
among Democratic women as he does among men. Additionally, Gore has
a 34% lead among nonwhites in the sample, including a 39% lead, 65%
to 26%, among blacks, while Bradley cuts Gore's lead to only 13%
among white Democrats. Gore also overwhelms Bradley, 65% to 32%,
among Hispanic Democratic voters.
The pattern of voting by age is similarly straightforward. The older the Democrat, the more likely he or she is to support Gore. The range is striking, from only a 9% Gore lead among 18- to 29-year-old Democrats, to a full 31% lead for Gore among those 65 and older.
Bradley Beats Gore in East, but Loses Elsewhere
Across the Country
Bill Bradley has deep roots in the Northeast. Although he was born
and raised in Missouri, Bradley was an all-American basketball
player at Princeton University, played professional basketball for
the New York Knicks, and represented New Jersey in the U.S. Senate
for 18 years. It may not be surprising, then, that Bradley's
support is strong in this region. Overall, Bradley beats Al Gore by
2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in states classified by the Census
Bureau as "East," and does particularly well in the New England
states. Gore, who represented Tennessee in the Senate, does very
well in the South, beating Bradley by 62% to 29%. Gore also wins
over Bradley in the Midwest, although Bradley does better in the
western Midwest than in the eastern Midwest. In the West, Gore
wins, 53% to 37%, although in the Pacific states -- dominated by
California -- the aggregated poll data show that Gore's lead over
Bradley is only 7 percentage points.
Positive Relationship Between Socioeconomic Status
and Support for Bradley
Bradley has a strong appeal to Democrats who have high
socioeconomic status. The patterns are remarkably linear -- in
general, the higher the level of education and the higher the
income, the more likely the Democrat is to vote for Bradley.
Whereas Gore wins over Bradley by 28 percentage points among those
with under $20,000 a year in household income, this lead shrinks to
only 7% among those making $50,000 and over, and Bradley squeaks
out a win, by 47% to 46%, among Democrats in the
$75,000-a-year-and-higher category. In similar fashion, among
Democrats with no college education, Gore's lead is 32%, while
among those with graduate degrees, the two candidates break even,
47% to 47%.
The impact of education on support for Bradley is more powerful than is the impact of gender. Among men who are college graduates, the two candidates are dead even, while among men without a college education, Gore leads by 27%. Among college-educated women, Gore wins by 13 percentage points, while among women without college, Gore's lead stretches to 37 percentage points.
Gore Does Best Among Hard-Core Democrats, Bradley
Among Independents Who Lean Democratic
The Gallup Poll asks these questions about the Democratic primary
of two groups of individuals in the poll sample: those who identify
themselves as Democrats in response to a party identification
question, and those who initially identify themselves as
independents, but who say that they lean towards the Democratic
party in response to a follow-up question. Gore does much better
among the core group of Democrats who immediately identify
themselves as Democrats, beating Bradley by 57% to 33%. Among the
smaller group of independents who lean Democratic, however, Bradley
is behind the vice president by only 2 percentage points. This may
have implications in a primary season in which core Democrats are
usually the most likely to turn out to vote.
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
Top Issues This Year to Voters Are Education, Social
Security, Medicare, Health Care, the Economy, and the Problems of
Raising Children in Today's Culture
What are the issues that will be driving the presidential race this
year? A mid-January Gallup poll asked Americans to rate each of 25
specific issues in terms of their perception of the issue's
importance to their personal presidential vote. Education emerged
as the most important issue; 86% of Americans say that public
education at the high school and elementary levels will be either
"extremely" (39%) or "very" (47%) important to them in making up
their minds this year on their presidential vote.
Several additional issues are roughly tied for second place, including
The same general pattern of differences is found on two other issues: moral standards in the country and the amount of taxes Americans have to pay. About eight in ten Republicans say these issues are either extremely or very important, compared with less than seven in ten Democrats, which may help explain why tax cut plans have been a central focus of Republican candidates George W. Bush and John McCain in the early primary states this year.
Compared with Republicans, Democrats place greater importance on a wide variety of specific issues: public education, the problems of raising children, cost of health care, the number of Americans with no health insurance, Social Security and Medicare, the medical care available in HMOs, poverty and homelessness, race relations, the environment, federal policy on crime prevention, and gun laws.
Issues where voters in the two parties do not differ include the federal income tax system, how the budget surplus is dealt with, campaign finance reform, the size and power of the federal government, the U.S. role in world affairs, abortion policy, federal spending on the military, government policy concerning gays and lesbians, foreign trade and the nation's economy. All of these issues, except for the economy, receive relatively low importance ratings. The economy is rated at about the middle of the issues included in this poll.
Next, we'd like to know which issues will be important to you when you vote in this year's presidential election. As I read each issue, please tell me if it will be extremely important to your vote, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all. [ROTATE: A-Y]
| Extremely | Very | Some-what | Not too | Not at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Public education at the elementary and high school levels | 39 | 46 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| The problems of raising children in today's culture | 33 | 44 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| The cost of healthcare | 32 | 49 | 16 | 2 | -- | 1 |
| The number of Americans with no health insurance | 31 | 42 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Policy on Social Security and Medicare for future generations | 31 | 51 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| The amount Americans pay in federal taxes | 29 | 43 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Moral standards in the country | 29 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Current policy concerning Social Security and Medicare benefits | 29 | 50 | 18 | 3 | -- | -- |
| Presidential character integrity | 29 | 45 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| The nation's economy | 28 | 53 | 16 | 2 | -- | 1 |
| The medical care available in the HMO system | 26 | 43 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Poverty and homelessness | 26 | 46 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Gun laws | 25 | 38 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| The federal income tax system | 25 | 45 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| How the budget surplus is dealt with | 24 | 44 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Federal policy on crime prevention | 23 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| The environment | 23 | 45 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Race relations | 20 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 6 | 2 |
| Abortion policy | 19 | 28 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 1 |
| Federal spending on the military | 18 | 38 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| The size and power of the federal government | 17 | 36 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| The U.S. role in world affairs | 17 | 43 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Campaign finance reform | 12 | 22 | 37 | 18 | 8 | 3 |
| Foreign Trade | 10 | 34 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 2 |
| Government policies concerning gays and lesbians | 8 | 17 | 30 | 21 | 22 | 2 |
Gore has an advantage over Bush on several important
issues, but Bush does better in terms of leadership, management and
vision
An analysis of a series of measures designed to gauge the public's
perceptions of the two presidential front-runners suggests that
Bush's key strength is his image as a leader rather than his
positions on the issues.
A Gallup poll conducted January 17-19 explores the images of the two front-runners that might help explain voters' preferences. The poll included questions that asked respondents to rate each of the two front-runners on 12 issues and 13 personal characteristics. The results show that Gore has a modest advantage over Bush on the issues included in the survey, but on the personal characteristics -- especially those related to leadership qualities -- Bush decisively beats Gore.
Personal Characteristics
A general question asked respondents whether they agreed or
disagreed that each candidate had "the personality and leadership
qualities a president should have." Sixty-five percent agreed that
Bush has those qualities, compared with 52% who agreed that Gore
does.
Among the 13 personal characteristics on which voters rated the two candidates, the one that most clearly distinguishes Bush from Gore is "strong and decisive leader," with 66% of Americans saying that the term applies to the Texas governor, while only 42% say it applies to the vice president. That 24-point difference is the largest on any of the more than two dozen items included in the survey.
Related to the leadership item are two other characteristics on which Bush also fares much better than Gore. Sixty-six percent of Americans say Bush can manage government effectively, while just 52% say that about Gore. And 60% say Bush inspires confidence, compared with 44% who say Gore does. On two other items, Bush enjoys a more modest 9-point advantage over Gore: those who say each candidate is someone they can respect (73% say that about Bush, 64% about Gore), and those who say each candidate stands up for what he believes in (79% Bush, 70% Gore).
On none of the personal characteristics does Gore enjoy an advantage over Bush. The two candidates essentially tie in terms of the public's ratings on several characteristics:
By contrast, Bush beats Gore by at least 10 points on just one issue -- crime -- with 66% of Americans saying Bush would do a good job of handling that issue, and 53% saying Gore would. Bush also beats Gore on two other issues, but by more modest margins: keeping the budget balanced (an 8-point advantage), and taxes (7-point advantage).
On the other items, the differences in ratings between the two candidates are not significant. These include
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that the following candidate has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have? How about … [Al Gore, George W. Bush]?
A. Al Gore
| Agree | Disagree | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||
| (LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 50% | 47 | 3 |
| National Adults | |||
| (NA) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 52% | 43 | 5 |
B. George W. Bush
| Agree | Disagree | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||
| (LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 64% | 32 | 4 |
| National Adults | |||
| (NA) 2000 Jan 17-19 | 65% | 28 | 7 |
HISTORICAL TREND: George H. Bush§
| Agree | Disagree | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likely Voters | |||
| (LV) 1988 Nov 2-6 | 65% | 33 | 2 |
| (LV) 1988 Oct 6-10 | 58% | 40 | 2 |
| (LV) 1988 Sep 1-6 | 56% | 39 | 5 |
| (LV) 1988 Aug 19-22 | 58% | 38 | 4 |
| (LV) 1988 Aug 4-9 | 46% | 50 | 4 |
| (LV) 1988 Jun 1-6 | 48% | 47 | 5 |
| National Adults | |||
| (NA) 1988 Apr 1-5 | 53% | 43 | 4 |
| (NA) 1988 Jan 7-11 | 50% | 47 | 3 |
| (NA) 1987 Oct 29-Nov 4 | 46% | 49 | 5 |
| (NA) 1987 Apr 10-15 | 39% | 55 | 6 |
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Al Gore. How about ... [RANDOM ORDER]?
BASED ON -- 765 -- FORM A RESPONDENTS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Applies | Doesn't apply | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Shares your values | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 51% | 39 | 10 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 52% | 41 | 7 |
| 1999 Mar 12-15 | 56% | 37 | 7 |
| 1998 Aug 21-23 | 52% | 35 | 13 |
| B. Cares about the needs of people like you | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 59% | 33 | 8 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 61% | 33 | 6 |
| 1999 Mar 12-15 | 63% | 31 | 6 |
| 1999 Jan 22-24 | 62% | 28 | 10 |
| 1998 Aug 21-23 | 59% | 31 | 10 |
| C. Can manage the government effectively | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 52% | 37 | 11 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 53% | 40 | 7 |
| 1999 Mar 12-15 | 59% | 35 | 6 |
| D. Has strong moral character | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 70% | 20 | 10 |
| 1999 Sep 21-23(‡) | 61% | 25 | 14 |
| (‡) A CNN/Time poll | |||
| E. Has vision for the country's future | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 67% | 25 | 8 |
| F. Understands complex issues | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 63% | 26 | 11 |
| G. Is a strong and decisive leader | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 42% | 47 | 11 |
| 1999 Sep 21-23(‡) | 39% | 49 | 12 |
| 1999 May 26-27(‡) | 39% | 47 | 14 |
| 1999 Mar 25(‡) | 35% | 49 | 16 |
| 1999 Mar 4(‡) | 39% | 41 | 20 |
| 1997 Sep 10-11(‡) | 41% | 47 | 12 |
| 1997 Mar 11-12(‡) | 40% | 43 | 17 |
| (‡) A CNN/Time poll | |||
| H. Stands up for what he believes in | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 70% | 23 | 7 |
| I. Has new ideas | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 56% | 31 | 13 |
| 1999 Sep 21-23(‡) | 42% | 44 | 14 |
| 1999 Mar 4(‡) | 44% | 33 | 23 |
| (‡) A CNN/Time poll | |||
| J. Is likeable | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 72% | 23 | 5 |
| K. Inspires confidence | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 44% | 47 | 9 |
| L. Is someone you can respect | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 64% | 31 | 5 |
| M. Can keep up with changing times | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 64% | 27 | 9 |
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to George W. Bush. How about ... [RANDOM ORDER]?
BASED ON -- 765 -- FORM A RESPONDENTS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Applies | Doesn't apply | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Shares your values | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 55% | 32 | 13 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 56% | 34 | 10 |
| 1999 Mar 12-15 | 58% | 31 | 11 |
| B. Cares about the needs of people like you | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 56% | 33 | 11 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 59% | 32 | 9 |
| 1999 Mar 12-15 | 59% | 32 | 9 |
| C. Can manage the government effectively | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 66% | 22 | 12 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 72% | 19 | 9 |
| 1999 Mar 12-15 | 77% | 15 | 8 |
| D. Has strong moral character | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 70% | 17 | 13 |
| E. Has vision for the country's future | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 71% | 20 | 9 |
| F. Understands complex issues | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 60% | 26 | 14 |
| G. Is a strong and decisive leader | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 66% | 24 | 10 |
| H. Stands up for what he believes in | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 79% | 13 | 8 |
| I. Has new ideas | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 57% | 28 | 15 |
| J. Is likeable | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 75% | 19 | 6 |
| K. Inspires confidence | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 60% | 29 | 11 |
| L. Is someone you can respect | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 73% | 20 | 7 |
| M. Can keep up with changing times | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 70% | 20 | 10 |
Next, please say whether you think Al Gore would do a good job or a poor job of dealing with each of the following issues. How about ... [RANDOM ORDER]?
BASED ON -- 731 -- FORM B RESPONDENTS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Good job | Poor job | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. The economy | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 62% | 29 | 9 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 58% | 32 | 10 |
| B. Foreign affairs | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 50% | 36 | 14 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 46% | 41 | 13 |
| C. The gun issue | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 41% | 41 | 18 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 45% | 40 | 15 |
| D. The environment | |||
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | |||