Key Bush Ratings Remain Fairly Strong

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, the first conducted since President Bush visited Iraq over Thanksgiving and signed the new Medicare bill into law, finds little change in Bush's ratings from mid-November. Fifty-five percent of Americans now approve of the job he is doing. This is slightly higher than his previous rating of 50%, but is consistent with the 50% to 56% range within which his job approval score has fluctuated since September.

George W. Bush’s Job Approval Rating, Recent Trend

The poll, conducted Dec. 5-7, also shows Bush maintaining positive job performance scores for matters related to defense and foreign affairs. And there is some sign of recent improvement on this dimension. Today, 65% of Americans approve of his handling of terrorism, 53% approve of his handling of foreign affairs (up from 46% in early November), and 50% approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq (up from 45% in early November).

Support for Bush's handling of the economy is holding steady at just under 50%. Today, 48% approve and 49% disapprove of his handling of this issue. While not terrific, this represents an improvement over earlier readings this year that showed somewhat higher disapproval.

George W. Bush’s Job of Handling the Economy

Ratings of Bush on Medicare are negative -- just 39% approve while 49% disapprove. But these numbers are close to his ratings on this issue all year, and thus are not indicative of a specific backlash against the new Medicare legislation.

The president's lowest issue ratings in the new poll come in the area of the federal budget, and these perceptions are lower than previously recorded. Only a third or so of Americans approve of Bush on the federal budget deficit (32%) and for controlling federal spending (36%), while about three in five Americans disapprove on each item. In March of this year, as many as 45% of Americans approved of Bush's handling of the deficit.

Thanksgiving Surprise Received Well

Bush's surprise visit to U.S. troops in Iraq over Thanksgiving was well received back home. Most Americans (79%), and even a solid majority of Democrats (65%), say the trip was a good idea. Overall, only 19% of the public thinks it was a bad idea. This evaluation contrasts with the somewhat more negative view of Bush's Iraq victory speech on an aircraft carrier last May. While a majority was still positive, a much smaller majority, 57%, thinks that trip, in which Bush arrived "Top Gun" style on a military jet, was a good idea.

Reaction to Bush’s Visits to the Troops

Dec. 5-7, 2003

When asked about Bush's motives in making the Iraq trip -- what the administration billed as a morale booster for U.S. forces -- a clear majority (57%) says it represented a sincere effort to show support for the troops. Only 37% believe it was mainly done to gain political points. Here partisanship shows, as Democrats tend to think the trip was politically motivated, while most Republicans believe it was sincere.

Perceived Reason for Bush’s Thanksgiving Visit to Iraq

Dec. 5-7, 2003

The public is evenly divided in its reaction to Bush's motives in making his military jet landing on an aircraft carrier last May in order to announce the end to major fighting in Iraq. Perhaps because of the specific purpose of that trip, or perhaps because of the criticism Bush has received from Democrats on the issue -- Americans are evenly divided over his motives in that case. Forty-eight percent think he was showing sincere support for the troops, while nearly as many (44%) say he was mainly there to score political points.

Bush Approval in Historical Context

Bush's current job approval rating is fairly good for presidents in the third year of their presidency. According to Gallup trends, 55% is the exact average of the approval ratings taken in the third year of each of the last 10 presidents, from Dwight Eisenhower through Bill Clinton. Third-year average approval scores range from highs of 72% for Eisenhower and 70% for the elder George Bush, down to 37% for Jimmy Carter and 45% for Ronald Reagan. George W. Bush's average approval rating thus far for his third year is 59%; but the final number will depend on data collected through Jan. 20, 2004.

Looking just at historical presidential ratings from December of the year prior to the presidential election, Bush's 55% rating is on the high end, with the exception of Eisenhower. However, Bush's rating is not exceptionally high, as, six out of the eight presidents since Eisenhower had approval scores at this stage in the 50% range.

Presidential Approval in December Prior to Re-election

When factoring disapproval ratings into the analysis, Bush's net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) is about average for all recent presidents, except Eisenhower. That is because Bush's 43% disapproval rating is slightly higher than what most other presidents received at the comparable point in time.

Bush Approval Among Seniors

The Medicare bill, which Bush signed last week, is historic in the costs and scope of change it will entail; the legislation is so complex it may take years to determine whether it is successful in improving medical coverage for seniors. Americans' immediate reaction to the plan is somewhat tepid. The public generally favors the new prescription drug portion of the law, but is uncertain or opposed to the more general changes made to Medicare coverage. Seniors are especially critical of Medicare coverage changes. (For more information on this, please see "Senior Citizens Wary of New Medicare Bill.")

At the same time, the new poll finds no clear change in seniors' ratings of Bush's job performance. Forty-five percent of seniors (aged 65 and older) today approve of the job Bush is doing, compared with 47% who approved in the previous three months.

Seniors are the least approving of Bush of all major age groups, but as shown in the summary of Bush approval ratings below, this pattern is typical. Whether looking at average approval ratings of Bush by age for his entire presidency, or just focusing on the last three months, from September through November, seniors are somewhat less likely to approve of Bush than are those under 65.

This gap may be slightly larger in the current poll: note the difference between national adults and seniors is currently 10 percentage points (55% vs. 45%), compared with 6 points in the previous three months, and just 5 points for Bush's entire presidency. But this difference is relatively minor, and not statistically significant given the sample sizes of age categories in the latest poll. The number will bear watching, however, in future polling.

Survey Methods

Results to Questions 3, 4, and 27 are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003, and an oversample of 79 additional Americans aged 65 and older. The combined data from the national sample and the oversample are combined and weighted to be demographically representative of the national adult population in the United States and to reflect the proportion of Americans 65 and older in the overall population. For results based on the total sample of 1,084 interviews, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results to Questions 42-45 are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy

B. Foreign affairs

C. The situation with Iraq

D. The federal budget deficit

E. Controlling federal spending

F. Medicare

G. Prescription drugs for older Americans

H. Terrorism

SUMMARY TABLE: BUSH APPROVAL ON ISSUES

27. Do you favor or oppose -- [RANDOM ORDER]?Do you [favor/oppose] strongly or not strongly?

A. The new prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients

B. The changes made in Medicare coverage

42. As you may know, George W. Bush traveled to Iraq to spend Thanksgiving with some U.S. troops stationed in Iraq. Do you think this was a -- [ROTATED: good idea (or a) bad idea]?

BASED ON 510 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

43. Just your best guess, do you think Bush traveled to Iraq on Thanksgiving -- [ROTATED: mainly to gain political points, (or) mainly to show sincere support for the U.S. troops]?

BASED ON 510 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

44. Now, thinking back to last May, when George W. Bush flew on a military fighter jet to an aircraft carrier. On that ship, Bush gave a nationally televised speech in which he announced an end to major fighting in the war with Iraq. Do you think Bush's trip to the aircraft carrier in May was a -- [ROTATED: good idea (or a) bad idea]?

BASED ON 494 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

45. Just your best guess, do you think Bush's trip to the aircraft carrier in May was done -- [ROTATED: mainly to gain political points, (or) mainly to show sincere support for the U.S. troops]?

BASED ON 494 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B