Americans See Obama as Solid Favorite to Win Election

Fifty-six percent think Obama will win; 36% think Romney will
By a 56% to 36% margin, Americans think Barack Obama rather than Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. This is the case even though voters' preferences are evenly divided between the two candidates.

Eight in 10 Democrats satisfied with their nominee vs. 59% of Republicans
Fifty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are satisfied with Mitt Romney as their party's nominee; 36% would have preferred someone else. By contrast, eight in 10 Democrats are satisfied with Barack Obama.

Republicans more negative about Obama than Democrats are about Romney
More registered voters (61%) say Mitt Romney would do a good job of handling the economy over the next four years than say this about President Obama (52%). But when asked to choose who would do better, voters are more evenly split.

Obama's solid support from nonwhites is offset by Romney's advantages within the white vote
President Obama's main electoral strengths are with voters who are nonwhite, nonreligious, single, or postgraduates. Mitt Romney's strengths are with white voters, particularly men, those who are religious, and those 30 and older.

Nearly twice as many say Obama, rather than Romney, is more likable
U.S. registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say Barack Obama is more likable than Mitt Romney, 60% to 31%. Obama also leads on perceived leadership and caring, and ties Romney on managing government and issue agreement.

Obama currently holds advantage on strength of support and enthusiasm
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are about tied among registered voters in key swing states, 47% vs. 45%. Across the same 12 states, Obama's voters are more enthusiastic than Romney's about voting in this year's election.

Catholics overall are evenly split between Obama and Romney
Most Hispanic Catholics prefer Barack Obama for president, while the majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics prefer Mitt Romney. Catholics are also divided by religiosity: The most religious pick Romney; the nonreligious pick Obama.

ELECTION 2012 TRACKING

May 8-14, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

TRIAL HEAT
CHANGE
46%
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45%
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OBAMA VS. ROMNEY TREND

Among registered voters

Economy

Election Matters: Americans' Election Predictions

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport and USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page reveal that a majority of Americans expect that President Obama will beat Mitt Romney in this year's presidential election and discuss the political implications of Obama's public support for same-sex marriage.

U.S. Economic Confidence Unchanged Last Week

U.S. economic confidence for the week ending May 13 is -18, unchanged from the previous week, meaning Americans are maintaining a slightly more positive outlook on the U.S. economy than was recorded in April.

Americans Like Having a Rich Class, as They Did 22 Years Ago

More than six in 10 Americans think the United States benefits from having a class of rich people, unchanged from 22 years ago. Similarly, 63% say they personally would like to be rich, up from 59% in 1990.

Wellbeing

Gulf Coast Residents Remain Worse Off Emotionally Post-Spill

Americans living in Gulf Coast-facing counties have continued to suffer worse emotional health in the two years since the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, but it appears that some improvement is occurring.

Republicans' Wellbeing Higher Than Democrats', Independents'

In the United States, Republicans have higher wellbeing than Democrats, boosted by their healthier behaviors, better workplace perceptions, and higher emotional and physical health.

French Adults' Life Ratings Sink in 2012

French citizens are more pessimistic about their future now than they have been since 2008, according to Gallup surveys ahead of France's presidential election.

World

Southeast Asian Leaders Earn Highest Job Approval in Asia

Residents in most Asian countries surveyed in 2011 are more likely to approve of their leaders than disapprove. Laos' president earned one of the highest approval ratings (97%), while Pakistan's president earned the lowest (20%).

Majority Worldwide Sees Widespread Corruption in Businesses

About two in three adults worldwide believe corruption is widespread in the businesses in their countries. This belief is commonplace throughout the world, ranging from 60% in the U.S. and Canada to 76% in sub-Saharan Africa.

Indians Start to See Less Corruption in Government, Business

Indians were slightly less likely in early 2012 to say corruption is widespread in their country's government and businesses. However, large majorities still see it as a problem and confidence in the government has not improved.