Santorum Soaring in the Midwest and With Weekly Churchgoers

GOP support for Santorum differs sharply by ideology, religion, and region
Rick Santorum's lead over Mitt Romney in GOP nomination preferences is largely the result of significant levels of support from conservatives, weekly churchgoers, and Midwesterners. He leads by more modest margins among other groups.

Even as 55% wish other candidates were running
Most Republicans prefer that one of the four GOP candidates clinch the nomination before the convention rather than letting the convention pick someone else, even though less than half are pleased with the current group of candidates.

Fifty-eight percent of Republicans say Romney has best chance to beat Obama
Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by 36% to 26% among national Republicans in Gallup Daily tracking, even as a clear majority of Republicans believe Romney has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in November.

Race takes another turn as Santorum gains 14 points since winning Feb. 7 GOP contests
The Republican presidential race is now a 32% to 30% statistical tie between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, in Gallup interviewing conducted wholly after Santorum's victories in the Feb. 7 nominating contests.

A review of key indicators that could help determine the outcome
Gallup editors review the key indicators that are likely to determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, putting the current data into historical context.

Santorum in third place, ahead of Paul
Mitt Romney has moved ahead of Newt Gingrich in national Republican voters' preferences for the 2012 GOP nomination, 31% to 26%, according to Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 27-31.

Candidates are tied on understanding the problems Americans face
Voters nationally and in 12 general election swing states are more likely to say Mitt Romney is presidential and sincere than to say so about Newt Gingrich. Fewer than half think either man understands what average Americans face.

ELECTION 2012 TRACKING

Feb 17-21, 2012 – GOP ballot support updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change. General election trial heats update periodically.

GOP BALLOT SUPPORT
CHANGE
35%
-1
27%
+1
15%
+1
10%
-1
2%
-

TRIAL HEAT
CHANGE
48%
-2
48%
-

TRIAL HEAT
CHANGE
53%
+3
41%
-7

GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking, Among Republican Registered Voters

Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET

*5-DAY ROLLING AVERAGE Export Full Trends

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Economy

U.S. Economic Confidence Retreats Slightly in Mid-February

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index averaged -23 last week, down slightly from -20 the week prior. Despite the decline, confidence remains better than the average for January and significantly improved over late 2011.

U.S. Unemployment Increases in Mid-February

The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the government reports and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.

Health Costs, Gov't Regulations Curb Small Business Hiring

Nearly half of small-business owners who are not currently hiring point to potential healthcare costs (48%) and government regulations (46%), in addition to concerns about weak revenues and the status of the U.S. economy, as reasons.

Wellbeing

Social Support Linked to Health Satisfaction Worldwide

Strong social ties are associated with health satisfaction worldwide, according to a new study based on Gallup data in 139 countries.

In U.S., Very Religious Have Higher Wellbeing Across All Faiths

Very religious Americans across all major religious groups have higher wellbeing than those who are moderately religious or nonreligious. Jewish Americans have the best overall wellbeing, despite being the least religious overall.

Religious Americans Enjoy Higher Wellbeing

Very religious Americans have higher wellbeing than those who are moderately religious or not religious at all, boosted by their higher life evaluation, healthier behaviors, higher emotional wellbeing, and better work orientations.

World

Northern Nigerians' Views Not in Line With Boko Haram's

In northern Nigeria, where the Islamist sect Boko Haram's attacks have killed hundreds, strong majorities believe greater interaction with the West is a benefit, suggesting a lack of support for the group's anti-Western ideology.

Social Support Linked to Health Satisfaction Worldwide

Strong social ties are associated with health satisfaction worldwide, according to a new study based on Gallup data in 139 countries.

Most Egyptians Plan to Cast Ballots in Presidential Election

The vast majority of Egyptians (86%) plan to vote in the country's first presidential election now set for late May and believe it will be fair and honest (88%), but 55% have not yet decided whom they will vote for.