July 28, 2008
"Likely voter models this early in the campaign should be considered to be a snapshot in time and suggestive of possible turnout scenarios and their implications."
July 24, 2008
In Europe, average citizens are much more in favor of Obama winning the U.S. election than McCain. The fascinating thing is the juxtaposition of the support Obama is getting abroad with his weaker support here at home.
July 21, 2008
“There is no basis in our data for Fernandez’ assertion about Obama losing support among Hispanics since he clinched the nomination.”
July 17, 2008
“As of mid-June, one in three Americans had a favorable opinion of both candidates, much higher than what Gallup found at similar points in the 2004 (17%), 2000 (24%), and 1996 (24%) election years.”
July 15, 2008
“The campaigns may argue that the real purpose of their campaigning at this point is not to change voters’ minds, but to lay the groundwork of ‘brand positioning’ for their candidate so that he is better able to withstand the inevitable battles ...
June 27, 2008
In recent weeks, national polls have been released that seem to show conflicting results. The Gallup Poll editors discuss the recent polls and other issues of note regarding the state of the campaign.
May 6, 2008
"The USA Today/Gallup poll found Hillary Clinton ahead of Obama among Democrats, while The New York Times/CBS News poll found Obama strongly ahead of Clinton. That single finding helped set the tone for the news coverage."
April 22, 2008
“Clinton beats Obama as the preferred choice for the Democratic nomination among smokers by a 49% to 47% margin. Among Democrats who are not smokers, Obama wins by a 53% to 44% margin.”
April 15, 2008
For all we know, maybe Obama’s sociologically oriented statements will increase his support among voters with college degrees who may agree with him. There is also the possibility of a backlash against Clinton’s campaign for making so much of ...
March 28, 2008
“There is a cheerier scenario for the Democrats. The animosity could “heal” once the Democratic nominee is determined. Democrats’ voting patterns could spring back to more normal parameters (i.e., no more than about 10% crossover voting).”
