From The Editor

Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters

Understanding the difference

September 12, 2008

Gallup Poll Editor in Chief Frank Newport explains the difference between registered voters and likely voters in Gallup election polling.More ...

The Search for Likely Voters

June 17, 2004

One of the most important tasks facing pollsters in election season is determining just who will and will not end up voting on Election Day. Gallup has developed procedures for isolating "likely voters," and focuses on their voting intentions in most Gallup pre-election polls. These procedures involve asking voters a series of questions about their past voting history, their interest in the election, and their knowledge of where people in their areas vote. The voting behavior of likely voters is often, but not always, significantly different from the total group of registered voters.More ...

The Pluses of Pre-Election Horse Race Polls

February 18, 2004

Critics deride the influence of pre-election horse race polls each election season, but these polls have a number of benefits. They allow voters to learn from the collective wisdom and thinking of their friends and neighbors, and also provide scientific data in lieu of the conjecture that would occupy news media otherwise.More ...

The Scientific Approach to Question Wording Differences

September 5, 2003

While it might seem that asking a question in a survey is a simple matter, it most assuredly is not. In fact, it turns out that the process of eliciting responses from those being surveyed is the most complex and daunting challenge pollsters face. But it is also the most fascinating challenge, and in many ways, the most rewarding.More ...

What We Learned in Nashville

June 4, 2003

Author Joe Klein recently made the following assertion in his TIME Magazine cover story about Democrats: “Polling is not much of a science when only 5% of people contacted by phone -- that’s the current average -- actually agree to answer questions.” That sounds pretty damaging, except that no one in the polling business knows where that figure comes from. As far as we know, it’s totally inaccurate. The cooperation rate (the percentage of people who finish phone interviews) is much closer to 50% in most current polling -- a far cry from Klein’s mysterious 5% figure.More ...

Should Bush Be Reading the Polls?

March 5, 2003

We have a great deal of data about the American people’s views on Iraq at this point, but it’s unclear just how much attention administration leaders are paying to it. President George W. Bush went on record a week or two ago saying that he wasn’t going to decide policy based upon focus groups (and presumably other mechanisms of assessing public opinion). There is a long tradition of debate on exactly how much attention elected leaders should pay to public opinion between elections, but there is a strong argument to be made that there is a great deal of wisdom embodied in the collective views of the people, and that leaders would do well to study it before making important decisions.More ...

Looking Closely at Survey Response Rates

January 6, 2003

Some critics have argued that lower response rates in telephone polls are lowering the quality of poll results, and may have resulted in inaccurate predictions for certain races in the November 2002 midterm elections. Most survey professionals, however, argue that lower response rates per se are not intrinsically bad as long as sample representation is maintained at each phase of the survey process. Research done on the effect of lower response rates, additionally, has shown little difference in survey responses based on differences in response rates.More ...

Yes, Polling Works

November 11, 2002

There’s little question that some Americans are skeptical of polls and the process by which we use small samples to represent the views of millions of people. We pick up that skepticism when we poll people about polls (something we do from time to time!), and I certainly hear it when I am on a radio talk show or make a speech and get bombarded with questions about the believability of our polls, which are based on what seems to the questioners to be ridiculously small numbers of people.More ...

Just How Bad Is the Economy?

September 10, 2002

Americans’ ratings of the current national economy are as negative as they have been in eight years. Americans are also downgrading their views of their own personal financial situations, and workers have become less positive about their companies’ finances. These souring attitudes may be a major factor in the fall congressional elections, and may predict a weak holiday retail season this November and December.More ...

Just How Depressed Are Americans?

August 5, 2002

The preponderance of poll questions being asked about the public's rating of the economy, reaction to corporate corruption scandals, and overall mood make it more important than ever to focus on putting poll results in appropriate context. Trends are vitally important when available, and looking at different questions that ask about the same topic helps provide maximum understanding of the concept under consideration.More ...

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From The Editor

Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters

Understanding the difference

The Search for Likely Voters

The Pluses of Pre-Election Horse Race Polls

The Scientific Approach to Question Wording Differences

What We Learned in Nashville

Should Bush Be Reading the Polls?

Looking Closely at Survey Response Rates

Yes, Polling Works

Just How Bad Is the Economy?

Just How Depressed Are Americans?

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