Please note: Gallup will not be publishing new Gallup Poll Daily tracking results on Thursday, June 19. The next report will be Friday, June 20.
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking suggests that if the presidential election were held today, registered voters would choose Barack Obama over John McCain by a five percentage point margin, 47% to 42%.
These results, based on June 15-17 interviewing, suggest that voter preferences are fairly stable at the moment -- Obama's lead has been four or five points in each of the last three individual nights of polling.
Obama has averaged a four percentage point advantage over McCain since Hillary Clinton decided to suspend her campaign, though in the immediate days after Clinton conceded the nomination Obama led by as much as seven points.
McCain has trailed Obama for most of June and last held a significant lead over him in May 21-25 polling. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones
Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from June 15-17, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,645 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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