Nine-day “too close to call” streak is broken
PRINCETON, NJ -- After more than a week of Barack Obama and John McCain being tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, Obama now holds a statistically significant five percentage point lead in the preferences of national registered voters, 47% to 42%, slightly larger than Sunday's 46% to 42% lead for Obama.
This is according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from June 26 through June 29, with no surveys conducted June 27. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Obama previously led McCain by a statistically significant margin -- peaking at seven points -- right after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, this lasted for only three days -- a mini-bounce -- after which the margin narrowed to three points, and more recently to an exact tie, before expanding in Sunday's report to a 4-point lead for Obama.
While the race has been consistently competitive for most of the past two months, McCain has not led Obama by a significant margin since early May. -- Lydia Saad
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from June 26 and 28-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,656 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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