Statistical tie resumes following brief Obama lead
PRINCETON, NJ -- If the presidential election were held today, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Barack Obama and 44% for John McCain, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.
The June 29-July 1 data show a tightening of the race with the candidates falling back into a statistical tie. Obama led by five percentage points in Monday and Tuesday reports -- based largely on polling conducted over the weekend -- perhaps enjoying a slight bounce following his "Unity" rally with former rival Hillary Clinton last Friday.
In the last two individual nights of polling, voter preferences have been closely divided. The race has generally been close in recent weeks, with Obama usually holding a slight edge.
Obama has been able to attain brief leads following his clinching of the nomination in early June and the Obama-Clinton joint campaign appearance.
These slight Obama bumps have proven to be short-lived, and from a larger perspective there has not been a dramatic restructuring of the race in recent weeks. For example, Obama has averaged 46% of the vote going back to Gallup's June 1-5 release, and his daily percentage over this time period has ranged only between 44% and 48%. McCain's percent of the vote has averaged 43%, and his percent has varied only across an even narrower range between 42% and 45%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from June 29-July 1, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,665 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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