European Obamania is alive and well. Gallup polling in Europe shows that residents of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are solidly behind Barack Obama when asked which U.S. candidate they support. Few support John McCain. We don't know if this is simply a case of differential name ID ("John McCain who?"), or if it represents a more fundamental appraisal of Obama's policy positions, the personal appeal of Obama the man, or reflects anti-Bush sentiment. But it may not matter. The facts are clear. Not only in these three countries, but also elsewhere in Europe (data we're still analyzing here at Gallup), average citizens are much more in favor of Obama winning the U.S. election than McCain.
The fascinating thing is the juxtaposition of the support Obama is getting abroad with his weaker support here at home.
As noted in the July 15 Editors' Blog, the American public has generally been in the doldrums this summer when it comes to significant shifts in support for the two major presidential candidates. The race has remained close for much of June and July, with Obama generally maintaining a quite small lead of about three percentage points on average.
It would certainly be a reasonable hypothesis that the massive publicity attendant to Obama's world tour of Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom could shake up the race and increase Obama's margin over McCain. We know that the publicity focused on a candidate at the summer convention produces a "bounce" in the polls in most instances (on average about five to six points). It wouldn't be out of the question to assume that the same type of concentrated attention Obama is getting now might increase his support levels in a similar fashion.
It appears that the McCain campaign is worried about the possibility of Obama gaining an advantage from his trip. Seeking to equalize media attention, McCain and his surrogates have been berating the media for its alleged one-sided news coverage and attempting to generate their own coverage by, among other things, engaging in strong negative attacks on Obama and his international positions.
But it appears that the McCain people may be a bit premature in their concerns. Certainly when we looked at our Gallup Poll Daily tracking average on Monday, we saw Obama moving out to a larger than usual six-point lead over McCain. We said to ourselves that this could be the start of at least a temporary Obama bounce. But by Tuesday, the numbers had settled back down to a three-point Obama lead, exactly the average for the summer so far. And on Wednesday, the three-day rolling average showed Obama with just a four-point lead. Looking at the data night by night doesn't suggest that Obama was getting an unusual spike in support either Monday or Tuesday.
And not only is Obama not getting an immediate spike from his European trip, he doesn't have an unusually strong position in general for a Democratic candidate in the United States. If it's true that Obama's youthful charisma and rock star appeal is propelling him to such positive positioning in Europe, then there's an interesting question as to why it's not having the same effect here in the United States.
To be sure, Obama has clearly captured the imagination of certain groups of Democratic voters, particularly the young -- and he did win the Democratic nomination. But the basic pattern of voting in the United States now is similar to what it was in 2004 when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. That race was close, and this race is close. So Obama's great appeal in Europe simply has not -- at least so far -- translated into concomitant sweep of public sentiment here in the United States.
