Obama’s position about halfway between his recent highs and lows
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a four-percentage-point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 48% to 44%.
While the difference between today's result and Thursday's 49% to 42% lead for Obama is not statistically significant, some of the broader shifts seen over the past 10 days, spanning both party's national conventions, have been meaningful.
Support for Obama since just before the Democratic National Convention kicked off on Aug. 25 has ranged from 44% to 50%, while McCain's support has ranged from 41% to 46%. Whereas the race was initially tied at 45%, Obama pulled into an eight-point lead at several points over the course of his convention. It now appears the Republican National Convention may be helping McCain to recoup some of his losses, though with Obama's current four-point lead, the entire convention period to this point has still been a net plus for Obama. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
While both conventions are now over, measurement of public reaction to them is not. Results, based on interviewing conducted Sept. 2-4, include just one day of interviewing conducted after Wednesday night's widely viewed acceptance speech by McCain's vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Most interviewing Thursday night was conducted before McCain's acceptance speech, so Gallup Poll Daily tracking results will start to reflect its impact in Saturday's report. The full impact of the GOP convention on voter preferences will not be known until Monday's report, the first in which all interviews will have been conducted following the convention's conclusion.
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general election results are based on combined data from Sept. 2-4, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,779 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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