Politics

Gallup Daily: Obama 48%, McCain 45%

Obama’s slight edge consistent with his positioning over the past week

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has regained the edge over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Sept. 23-25, 48% to 45%.

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Today's three-day rolling average includes interviewing from Tuesday through Thursday, and thus includes two days following McCain's announcement on Wednesday afternoon that he was suspending his campaign, putting his participation in the first presidential debate on hold, and staying in Washington until lawmakers reach an agreement on a financial rescue bill. Last night's interviewing could also reflect public reaction to the reported breakdown of those rescue talks late Thursday afternoon.

Obama's current three percentage point advantage, while not significant, is a return to his slight frontrunner positioning of the past week, after slipping back to a tie with McCain at 46% in Thursday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report. These small shifts in candidate support levels could be just random fluctuations given the survey's margin of error, or could reflect public reaction to the many momentous news items coming out of Washington and Wall Street. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

The propensity for Obama's candidacy to benefit from public anxiety about the economy became apparent as Obama moved into a six-point lead over McCain in last week's Gallup Poll Daily tracking following the financial collapses of Lehman Brothers and AIG. With another major bank failure in the news today, and no consensus in Washington on how to fix the problems, support for Obama could again be on the rise. -- Lydia Saad

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(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general election results are based on combined data from Sept. 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,736 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.

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