GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- This year marks only the second time in U.S. history in which a son has followed in the footsteps of his father and run for re-election as president of the United States.
John Quincy Adams ran for re-election in 1828 and was defeated -- some 28 years after his father, John Adams, had lost his own re-election bid to Thomas Jefferson in 1800. There was, of course, no polling at that point in time, so we obviously don't have any comparative data from the Adamses to use to provide context for the current election year situation.
However, we have a great deal of polling data from George H.W. Bush's failed attempt to be re-elected in 1992, and it is informative as well as interesting to compare that campaign with his son's campaign as it is shaping up today.
The fact that George H.W. Bush ran and lost 12 years ago no doubt is never too far from the minds of the current Bush political team. The current President Bush himself worked on his father's re-election campaign, and saw firsthand what happened as voters became increasingly disenchanted with the senior Bush and increasingly enamored with Bill Clinton.
There are a number of parallels between the two Bushes' situations, although -- inevitably -- one should be cautious in saying that the situations are identical.
Iraq is one major parallel. In the early months of the year before his re-election bid, George H.W. Bush led the United States and a set of allies in Operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqis. In the spring of the year before his re-election, the current President Bush also went to war against Iraq, but this time within the country itself, ultimately deposing dictator Saddam Hussein.
The economy is another somewhat similar situation. Clinton's advisers alertly noticed the fact that many Americans were not satisfied with the shape of the economy in 1992, and used that focus to help Clinton defeat Bush.
In this election, the Democratic candidates in the primaries, and now presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry by himself, have focused on the economy as a major campaign theme -- just as most perceptual indicators show that the American public has become increasingly negative about the direction in which the U.S. economy is headed.
Both Bushes also had vice presidents who engendered criticism. There was discussion in 1992, as there is now, about the president choosing someone else to be the vice presidential candidate for a second term. The elder Bush refused to unload Dan Quayle, and so far, the current president has stuck strongly (at least publicly) with Dick Cheney.
The biggest difference between the two election years, of course, is terrorism. The current president has received record job approval ratings in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and his ability to handle terrorism continues to be his strongest virtue, according to all polling.
Here is a review of some of the more interesting parallels between the two Bush elections.
Bush Job Approval
It is clear that the current president's job approval rating is running higher than the pattern established by the elder Bush in 1992. For the last three months, in fact, the current president's average job approval rating is about 10 points higher than his father's average over the same three months in 1992.
| Presidential Job Approval |
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This is not totally good news for the president because his current 50% rating, albeit higher than his father's at this point in 1992, is still not robust by any means. If an incumbent's job approval rating falls below 50% in an election year, then it historically has been the death knell for that president's re-election chances. Job approval is a key indicator, and the trajectory of George W. Bush's job approval from this point on is probably the single-best way of estimating his re-election chances. His father was clearly in trouble by March 1992. Right now, George W. Bush is on the edge.
Re-Election Chances
The situation of the former President Bush in terms of the head-to-head trial heat ballot was more positive in March 1992 than is the situation of his son now:
- George H.W. Bush was ahead of Clinton in 1992 until Ross Perot dropped out of the race in July, at which point Clinton moved into the lead. Meanwhile, Perot had led both Bush and Clinton in polling conducted in June. Bush's greatest lead over Clinton was 20 points at two times early in the year; his greatest deficit to Perot was 8 points in June, and his greatest deficit to Clinton was 25 points in July. (Once Clinton had the lead in July, he led in every poll from that point until the election, even after Perot got back in the race in September.)
- The first 1992 trial heat had Bush at 53%, Clinton 38%. In late March 1992, Bush was ahead of Clinton by a 20-point margin.
- The current president began 2004 with a substantial lead over Kerry, but three separate Gallup Polls conducted in February and early March of this year have shown Bush behind Kerry.
| Trial Heat Margins in 1992 and 2004 |
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Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going in the United States
Although only 39% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States today, that's still 20 points higher than the extremely low 19% of the public that was satisfied with the way things were going in March 1992. This differential between satisfaction levels now and 12 years ago has been consistently evident for several months.
| Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going in the United States |
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This satisfaction measure is not a perfect predictor of an incumbent's re-election chances, however. Gallup didn't ask this particular question in 1980, when Jimmy Carter fell to Ronald Reagan, so we don't have a context from that election. But satisfaction was just at about the 50% mark in 1984 when Reagan handily won re-election.
Most recently, satisfaction never rose above 45% in any Gallup survey in 1996 prior to the November election in which Clinton handily defeated Bob Dole.
In other words, it's clear that the current president would be well within the bounds of historical precedent if he were to win while satisfaction was below the 50% mark.
Perceptions of the Economy
Americans' ratings of the nation's economic situation were significantly more negative in the spring of 1992 than they are now. The net rating of the current economy now (% excellent/good - % poor) has been 22%, 12%, and 8% in the first three months of this year, compared with a net negative 29% in January 1992 and net negative 36% in April 1992.
| Economic Conditions in the Country % Excellent/Good Minus % Poor |
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The public's estimate of the direction of the economy presents a slightly more mixed picture.
| Economic Outlook % Getting Better Minus % Getting Worse |
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Clearly 1992 began with a very negative assessment of this dimension, with an amazing 71% saying that the economy was getting worse, compared with only 22% who said it was getting better (a net negative 51%). On the other hand, Americans began 2004 with a much more positive outlook -- 66% said the economy was getting better and 27% said it was getting worse. But the public has become more negative. In Gallup's March 8-11 poll, 47% of Americans said the economy was getting worse, while 44% said it was getting better (a net negative of 3%). In April 1992, by way of contrast, the public actually became more optimistic about the economy, and there was a one-time sharp uptick in optimism (to a net negative 5%). By June 1992, however, the public had become more negative again, with the confidence rating dropping to net negative 33%.
All in all, the data suggest that Bush No. 41 was operating much more in a negative economic environment in 1992 than Bush No. 43 is in 2004 -- at least so far.
Most Important Problem
A May 1992 Gallup Poll showed that 66% of Americans felt that the most important problem facing the country was economic in nature, including 15% who mentioned "the recession," 29% who said it was the economy in general, and 21% who mentioned unemployment and jobs. Our March 2004 Gallup Poll finds 47% of Americans mentioning some aspect of the economy as the most important problem.
Both of these results suggest a strong concern about the economy on the part of Americans in 1992 and 2004, but it is obvious that economic concerns weighed more heavily on the minds of Americans in 1992 than they do today.
Vice Presidents
Both Bushes had controversial vice presidents. In both 1992 and in 2004 there has been discussion of the possibility of the president making the bold and dramatic move of changing the vice presidential candidate going into the election. (This would not be unprecedented; Gerald Ford dropped his existing vice president, Nelson Rockefeller, in 1976 in favor of Dole, and Franklin Roosevelt changed vice presidents twice across his three bids for re-election.)
At this point, the data suggest that the current vice president is a little better positioned than was Quayle 12 years ago.
Quayle had a favorable rating of 41% in January 1992 and 33% in July of that year. Cheney's favorable rating in a February Gallup Poll this year is slightly higher, at 45%.
It appears that the clamor to get rid of the vice president was a little higher in 1992 than it is this year, although the data on this issue are not precisely comparable as far as timing is concerned.
In October 2003, 28% of Republicans felt that President George W. Bush should drop Cheney and get someone new, while 68% felt that Cheney should be retained.
In November 1991, Republicans were a little more eager for George H.W. Bush to get rid of Quayle: 32% felt that the controversial vice president should go, while a majority, 61%, felt that he should stay. By July 1992, the percentage of Republicans who wanted Quayle to go had risen slightly to 39%, with just 54% saying that the president should keep him.
Bottom Line
Taken as a whole, these data suggest that the current president is -- at the moment -- in a generally more propitious position in terms of his re-election probabilities than was his father at this point in 1992. George W. Bush's job approval rating is higher than his father's, overall levels of satisfaction at this time are higher than they were in 1992, and perceptions of the economy -- the factor that most analysts agree was the most significant factor behind Bush the elder's loss -- were significantly more negative in 1992 than they are now. Additionally, the current president's vice president appears to be slightly less of a possible negative factor in the eyes of voters than was his father's vice president.
There are still two concerns for the current president. First, despite his relatively more positive positioning compared with his father's situation in 1992, none of the election indicators for George W. Bush are strongly positive. His numbers are, in short, weak, but not as weak as his father's. Second, the current president has been behind his probable Democratic opponent in Gallup's trial heat ballots over the last month, a contrast to the fact that his father was ahead of Clinton in the same ballots in the early months of 1992.