Politics

Gallup Daily: Obama Lead at 7-8% Among Likely Voters

No major change in structure of race

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has 51% of the vote among likely voters in two separate estimates based on Gallup's likely voter models, while John McCain's share of the vote is 43% to 44%; these results are based on interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Obama has a seven percentage point, 51% to 44%, margin using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections for Oct. 22-24, and an eight-point, 51% to 43%, margin using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.

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Barack Obama was off the campaign trail for two days as a result of a visit to his ailing grandmother in Hawaii, but returns to campaigning today in Nevada and New Mexico. John McCain has been campaigning continuously and will also be campaigning in New Mexico on Saturday. None of this has, apparently, made much difference in the standing of the two candidates in the minds of voters. Obama's margin over McCain is statistically significant, and continues to reflect a fairly stable Obama lead in the race for president, with Election Day now just 10 days away.

Obama's lead among registered voters is at nine points, 51% to 42%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport

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(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 22-24, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,793 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,413 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intentions and self-reported past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. The traditional likely voter model assumes a turnout of 60% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size is 1,819.

For results based on the sample of 2,358 "expanded" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intentions only), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. The expanded likely voter model does not make any assumptions about turnout level.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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