It appears that the relentless tide of grim news from Iraq, perhaps coupled with the public's disappointment in the progress of the U.S. economy, has resulted in a gradual -- but not sudden -- erosion of support for both President George W. Bush and the war in Iraq. If Americans have been bending over backward to give the president and his policies the benefit of the doubt in recent months, it's clear now that they are more and more coming to the realization that Bush's policies in Iraq are simply not working.
Iraq
We have arrived at a point at which both Bush and his Iraq policies have lost majority support. This shift casts increasing doubt on the probability that the president will successfully gain re-election for a second term.
As 2004 began, the level of support for U.S. involvement in Iraq was relatively high, with 59% of Americans saying in early January that the war in Iraq was "worth it." By a May 2-4 Gallup Poll, the percentage of Americans saying that the war was worth it had slipped to 50%. Now, in our most recent poll (May 7-9), this "worth it" number is only 44%, the lowest measurement of the war by five points (compared with the previous low point of 49% in late January/early February).
This, in my opinion, is the single most important measure we have of the public's judgment on Iraq. The fact that the president has lost majority agreement that the benefits of the nation's involvement in Iraq are worth the costs is a potentially critical blow, and signifies an increase in Bush's re-election vulnerability. Americans have basically stuck with the president for more than a year in terms of their willingness to go along with the Iraq incursion, but it appears that at this point, their patience has grown thin.
Support for the Iraq invasion is now very much isolated to Republicans, 76% of whom say the Iraq invasion was worth it. Only 37% of independents and a low 22% of Democrats agree. In short, support for the administration's Iraq policy has slowly devolved to the point at which, rather than enjoying a broad mandate from the public, it is fueled to a substantial degree solely by members of the president's own political party.
There is a subtle difference in the pattern of responses when we ask Americans a separate question about whether the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq. Forty-four percent agree, while 54% do not. While this is the highest "mistake" percentage Gallup has measured for the Iraq war, a majority of Americans still believe that sending troops was not a mistake.
In short, it appears that Americans are not so much doubting the basic rationale for the war to begin with; rather, considering everything that has occurred in Iraq over the last year, they believe that the results of that invasion have simply not been worth the costs incurred. (It is worth noting that by the fall of 1967, a plurality of Americans were saying that sending troops to Vietnam was a mistake, indicating that displeasure with the current Iraq involvement has not yet reached "Vietnam-like" proportions.)
Bush Approval
Bush's job approval rating is now at 46% -- another highly significant result from this weekend's poll. This is the lowest job approval rating of Bush's administration -- three points below his previous low point of 49% recorded at three separate points earlier this year.
Again, Bush's ratings show a pattern of gradual, rather than sudden, erosion. Between mid-January and early May, Bush averaged a 51% job approval rating, with little significant variation from poll to poll. Even this current reading of 46% is not a major drop from the 49% recorded a week ago.
But the drop is symbolically important. Any job approval rating below 50% is bad news for an incumbent president seeking re-election. None of the five winning incumbents since Dwight Eisenhower had job approval ratings below 50% after January of their election years. The trajectory of Bush's approval ratings are starting to somewhat resemble those of the three presidents who most recently lost their bids for re-election: George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford.
I believe the highly visible Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal is a significant factor behind the erosion of Bush's job approval rating, but it is apparently affecting Bush in a general, indirect fashion. The poll shows neither Bush, nor Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, for that matter, are being blamed directly for the alleged abuses. Americans are much more likely to blame the soldiers and officers involved in the scandal than they are to blame Bush or Rumsfeld, and significant majorities say that the abuse represents an isolated event that occurred in contravention to official U.S. policy. Rumsfeld's job approval rating is no lower than that of Bush himself, and only about a third of Americans believe that Rumsfeld should resign or be fired.
Election
From Bush's perspective, the one somewhat more positive finding from the current poll is the fact that presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry has been unable to move into a substantial lead in trial heat polling when pitted against him.
Kerry is ahead of Bush among registered voters, by a 50% to 44% margin. But Bush pulls ahead by one point (48% to 47%) among likely voters. At this point, it appears that Bush supporters remain highly activated and if the election were held today, the outcome would be close, in part because of strong GOP turnout.
But this poll also reveals significant Kerry advantages. When asked which candidate would do the best job handling the economy, Kerry beats Bush by a 54% to 40% margin. And just as importantly, Bush led Kerry by 15 points in March when Americans were asked which candidate could do the better job handling the situation in Iraq. Now, Bush has only a three-point lead on this measure, with 48% saying Bush could do a better job and 45% saying Kerry.
Still, Kerry has been unable to overtake Bush on this Iraq question, and I think this is an important finding. Support for U.S. involvement in Iraq is down, and Bush is now getting only a 41% job approval rating on his handling of Iraq. This issue is clearly a major weakness for Bush. Yet, perhaps because Kerry has not defined exactly what he would do differently in regard to Iraq, Bush still has a slight lead when the public is asked who could do the better job handling the situation there.
The election contest is not over by any means, of course. It is only May, and there are a series of predictable and unpredictable events that can, and will, occur between now and Nov. 2 that may affect the ultimate outcome.
In terms of unpredictable events, there are the vast unknowns when it comes to the issues of Iraq, terrorism, and the economy. All three of these domains are important to Bush's re-election chances, and no one knows exactly how they will play out.
On the economy, it's worth noting that things are not looking particularly rosy for Bush at this point. Indeed, with all of the focus on Iraq, it is easy to overlook the fact that the American public remains quite sour on the state of the U.S. economy.
Gallup's May 2-4 update on perceptions of the economy shows that the public is more negative than it has been in months. More Americans mention the economy as the top problem facing the nation than any other issue, less than 30% are willing to rate the current economy as excellent or good, and for the first time in a year, a majority of Americans are convinced that economic conditions are getting worse, not better.
This is particularly bad news for the Bush administration. Every Gallup survey this year has indicated that voters consider the economy to be the most important issue they will take into account as they cast their votes -- even more so than Iraq.
Why the sour feelings about the economy? Gallup data show that Americans are still concerned about unemployment, despite the evidence that more and more jobs are being created in the U.S. economy. Perhaps more importantly, there is growing evidence of concern about inflation and interest rates, underscored by the rising price of gas at the pump each time Americans fill up.
Plus, I believe that the public's ratings of the economy are being affected by a more general sense of unease. Only 37% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States in general -- within one point of the Bush administration low. This negative feeling about the state of the nation, perhaps largely caused by the troubles in Iraq, is no doubt part of the explanation why Americans are currently more negative about the economy as well.
There is no doubt that Bush's approval ratings -- and hence his positioning against Kerry on the ballot -- could be affected by specific events relating to Iraq and terrorism that will occur between now and the election. There is the always possibility of new terrorist acts, and the June 30 handover of power in Iraq will be a real key.
There are also several planned events that will provide Kerry with an opportunity to better define himself in the eyes of the voters.
The first will be Kerry's announcement of his vice presidential candidate at some point between now and the Democratic convention. Not only will voters react to the man or woman whom Kerry nominates, but the process will put Kerry back in the spotlight and allow him to increase his share of the media space that Bush has dominated in past weeks.
The second important event for Kerry will be the July convention itself. Conventions are particularly important to the party of the challenger in a presidential race, because they provide the public with a chance to focus on the candidate intensely for several days in a row. (The GOP convention will, in my opinion, have less impact because Bush is so well-known to Americans already.)
Finally, there are the fall debates, which many observers believe were a net negative for Al Gore in the 2000 election contest. Again, for the lesser-known Kerry, these debates will be a key opportunity to take his case to the public, for better or for worse.