Here's an overview of major developments in American public opinion this week: Concerns about the economy and the war in Iraq continue to dominate Americans' thinking about the major problems facing the country today. The percentage of Americans who say the war in Iraq has been worth it is as low as has been measured since the war began more than two years ago. About 6 in 10 Americans continue to say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. President Bush's job approval rating remains in the 48% to 50% range. The American public isn't paying a great deal of attention to the Senate's often rancorous debate on the filibuster rule, but when pressed to offer an opinion, the majority favors keeping the filibuster rule in place and also favors the Democrats' approach to the controversy. Congressional job approval is as low now as it has been in eight years.
Most Important Problem
Each month at about this time, Gallup asks Americans a simple question: "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Gallup has been asking this question for decades, and it provides good insight into what's on people's minds across the nation.
There hasn't been a great deal of change this year in the broad types of responses Americans give to this question. The most prevalent single category of answers relate to the war in Iraq -- Iraq responses ranged between 18% and 25% this year, and are at 21% in the most recent May 2-5 poll. The Iraq situation was the most commonly mentioned response when we asked Americans a few weeks ago what advice they would give Bush if they had 15 minutes to talk to him. In other words, I don't think the war is going away as a major concern in Americans' minds.
At the very least, it's fair to say the country remains highly divided on the issue. One Iraq measure -- agreement that it was worth going to war in Iraq -- has dropped to its lowest point since the March 2003 invasion. Gallup has asked this question 38 times over the last two years. At this point, only 41% say the war was worth it, and 57% say it was not. The previous low was 44% in May and October of last year. More generally, a majority of Americans have been saying the U.S. involvement in Iraq was not worth it since October 2004.
The picture is not quite as bleak in response to the "mistake" question Gallup has used to measure reaction to wars for more than 50 years. Forty-nine percent of Americans say the war in Iraq was a mistake, while 48% say it was not. The "mistake" percentage crept above the 50% line at several points last year, including two polls last summer in which 54% said the war was a mistake.
So, we have a mild discrepancy here: 49% say the war in Iraq was a mistake, but 57% say the war was not worth it. Why the difference? Americans may be somewhat more loath to agree that an initial policy decision was a mistake, but perhaps a little more willing to say things have turned out badly in the long run. Whatever the reason for these numbers, they aren't great news for the administration.
Certainly the public is reacting in part to the grim news of renewed insurgent violence in Iraq, with recent front-page reports of both American and Iraqi deaths. More than half of the public (56%) now says things are going badly for the United States in Iraq. This "going badly" percentage fell below 50% in two polls conducted in February and March of this year (in the aftermath of the successful Iraqi elections), but has again reached majority status.
Bush's Numbers
It's difficult to tell how much the war is wearing on the public's support for Bush, who has made the Iraq invasion a centerpiece of his administration's policies. Bush receives only a 42% approval rating for his handling of Iraq, but that's still higher than his approval ratings for Social Security, energy policy, and gas prices.
Bush's overall approval rating is now at 50%, and has been hovering between 48% and 50% for five consecutive Gallup Polls stretching back to early April. That's not a terrible job approval rating in historical context, and certainly nothing like the depths to which former President Lyndon Johnson fell during the last two years of his administration as the Vietnam War began to eat away at his image. Johnson's job approval rating dropped as low as 35% in 1968.
The Economy
In addition to the Iraqi situation, about one in three Americans mention some aspect of the economy when asked to name the nation's top problem. Many Americans just say "the economy" and let it go at that, while others mention specifics such as gas prices, unemployment, or the deficit.
Twice a month, Gallup asks Americans two basic questions about the economy: 1) "How would you rate current economic conditions?" and 2) "Is the U.S. economy getting better or getting worse?" By combining the responses to these two measures, we can place Americans into one of three "economic outlook" groups: positive, mixed, and negative.
The last four polls (one in mid-March, two in April, and the current early May poll) show between 52% and 55% of Americans are in the negative economic outlook group (that is, they rate the current economy as "only fair" or "poor" and say economic conditions are "getting worse"). That's basically the highest percentage in this negative category in two years.
The pattern over time shows a great deal of negativity developing just before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, then a positive economic spirit swept in by the rally that followed 9/11, then a return to negativity in late 2002 and for much of early 2003. Then, importantly, there was a slight decrease in negativity last year and early this year, as things apparently began to look better on the economic front. Now, the public is sliding back into a more negative mood.
This negativity comes at a time when recent economic reports show "real" economic numbers aren't so bad. The stock market was up last week and government reports indicate job growth in the country was stronger than expected last month. But many Americans are worried about gas prices and simply making ends meet, even if they do have jobs.
Inflation
The Federal Reserve Board last week raised its target interest rates by a quarter of a point to 3.0%, expressing concern about increasing inflationary pressures. This comes as no great shock to the average American, three-quarters of whom have been saying since December that they expect interest rates to go up. The public also goes along with the Fed in terms of concern about inflation; 74% believe inflation will go up over the next six months. In early January of this year, only 62% thought inflation would rise. Inflation, however, is still not the dominant economic problem facing the country according to Gallup's mid-April poll. That distinction is reserved for gas prices and jobs.
Senate Filibuster Wrangling
The news media this week will no doubt continue to focus on the wrangling in the U.S. Senate over the filibuster rule, and its implications for the process of confirming judicial nominees. But filibusters aren't a high priority for most Americans, just 2% of whom say the most important problem facing the country today relates to the nation's judicial system. (Virtually no Americans say the Democrats' use of the filibuster rule to avoid voting on presidential judicial nominees is the country's top problem.)
Additionally, the majority of Americans aren't following news about the filibuster debate closely, and it's doubtful that most truly understand the intricacies of what is involved.
Still, Gallup's analysis shows religious Americans and Republicans are significantly less in favor than other Americans of keeping the filibuster rule in place. That suggests there is enough awareness of the implications of the filibuster rule to shift battle lines in the predictable political directions. (Although there are no significant differences in the amount of attention being paid to the filibuster flap based on either partisanship or frequency of church attendance.)
The filibuster rule allows Democrats to block Bush's judicial nominees from being confirmed in the Senate. Filibuster opponents claim new judges are needed because existing judges tend to take the law into their own hands rather than just interpreting the Constitution. Most of these arguments filter down to concerns about moral issues, such as those highlighted by the judicial system's failure to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case.
There is little question moral issues in general are a concern for Americans. Eight in 10 Americans interviewed in Gallup's May Values and Beliefs poll rate the nation's moral values as "only fair" or "poor," and almost as many say moral values are getting worse, rather than better.
World War II
Bush returns from Russia this week, having commemorated the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe and the Allies' defeat of Nazi Germany. What was Gallup asking Americans at this time 60 years ago? I took some time to look back into Gallup archives to answer that question. Of some relevance to Bush's visit with Russian President Putin last weekend is this question, asked in May 1945: "Do you think Russia can be trusted to cooperate with us after the war?" Forty-five percent of Americans said yes, 38% said no, and 17% were undecided. The Gallup Poll also found the majority of Americans favored keeping a compulsory draft after the war was over in 1945, and the vast majority believed reports that Germans had killed large numbers of people in concentration camps.