U.S. Economic Confidence Falls Slightly From Five-Year High

U.S. Economic Confidence Falls Slightly From Five-Year High

by Alyssa Brown

Americans' perceptions of current conditions and economic outlook worsen slightly

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index dipped to -7 last week from -3 the prior week, which is the highest weekly average since Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily in January 2008. The current score of -7 is the lowest Gallup has measured in roughly a month, but is still one of the best weekly scores in more than five years.

Trend: Gallup Economic Confidence Index -- Weekly Averages

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index consists of two components -- Americans' assessments of current economic conditions and their perceptions of the nation's economic outlook. Both components showed slight declines last week.

Americans' net rating of the nation's economic outlook slipped to -1 last week from 4 the prior week -- which was the most positive weekly net economic outlook in more than five years of daily tracking. Last week, 47% of Americans said the economy was getting better and 48% said it was getting worse.

Trend: Net Ratings of Economic Outlook in the U.S. -- Weekly Averages

Americans' net assessments of current economic conditions declined to -13 last week from -9 the prior week. The current reading reflects 20% saying current economic conditions are excellent or good and 33% saying they are poor.

Trend: Net Ratings of Current Economic Conditions in the U.S. -- Weekly Averages

Bottom Line

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index slipped last week, but still registered one of the best readings of the past five years. Although the BLS's unemployment report did not show improvement in May, Americans may be seeing improvements in their daily lives -- such as increases in the value of their U.S. stock market investments as well as their homes -- that are likely boosting their confidence in the economy. In addition, in May, U.S. workers reported more net hiring at their companies than they have since the spring of 2008. Americans' self-reported spending also increased in May -- to its highest level since October 2008. Still, a substantial increase in Americans' confidence will likely depend on more economic growth and lower unemployment.

Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:

Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending

Read more about Gallup's economic measures.

View our economic release schedule.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 3-9, 2013, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 3,548 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cellphone numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only/landline only/both, cellphone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2012 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2011 National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

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