Insights Into Hamas' Victory: Detailed Findings

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

The Gallup Organization sponsored a nationally representative survey of 1,000 Palestinians aged 15 and older living in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem as part of the Gallup World Poll. In-person interviews were conducted from Dec. 26, 2005, through Jan. 8, 2006.

The poll found widespread Palestinian discontentment with official corruption, the lack of job creation, and general incompetence that can easily explain the ouster of the Fatah Party in Wednesday's parliamentary elections.

Several major conclusions spring from this comprehensive survey of Palestinian attitudes, including:

• There is widespread Palestinian support for the peace process with Israel and a preference for negotiation rather than violence, raising questions about just what kind of mandate Hamas will have for its historically militant approach to relations with Israel.

• Government corruption is a major concern, and confidence in the Palestinian leadership is correspondingly low.

• The public is deeply dissatisfied with general conditions in Palestine, and with government efforts to help the poor and improve job opportunities.

• Palestinians regard the United States' and Israel's leadership equally poorly.

Here are the details behind these major findings.

1. Desire for Peace

Hamas' victory raises obvious questions about the role that violence will play in Palestinians' future efforts to secure their political demands.

However, Gallup's recent polling suggests the vote for Hamas does not correspond with a palpable desire on the part of Palestinians to see an increase in violence against Israel.

By a 51% to 34% margin, the majority of Palestinians want to see the cease-fire with Israel extended in 2006.

If both sides agree to it, do you think the cease-fire with the Israelis should or should not be extended in 2006?

More generally, a majority of Palestinians say they support the peace process with the Israelis, at least to some degree. Current views on this are similar to where they stood six years ago.

In principle, do you support or oppose the peace process with the Israelis?

Also, the vast majority of Palestinians believe that achieving peace with Israel is very important to several aspects of their personal well-being, including their personal safety and security, economic prosperity, and international respect for Palestine.

How important do you believe achievement of a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians is to each of the following?

When asked their preferred approach to achieving self-determination and security for their people, the majority (54%) chooses "mostly nonviolent forms of resistance and negotiation"; only half as many (28%) choose "mostly armed struggle and military solutions."

When asked about their approach to peace, 43% of Palestinians prefer "to coexist peacefully with my country's enemies now -- even if in strong disagreement with them." Only a third (33%) would prefer "to suffer today for a greater peace with my country's enemies in the future."

At the same time, more Palestinians (44%) believe suicide bombings against Israel have improved the Palestinians' chances for self-determination than say these have weakened their chances (34%).

2. Government Competence and Corruption

When asked about the Palestinian leadership, only 35% said they approve; 56% disapprove.

Similarly, only 37% said they have confidence in the national government; 57% do not.

In Palestine, do you have confidence in each of the following, or not?

Palestinians are deeply dissatisfied with local crime and corruption. Only 17% are satisfied, while 80% are dissatisfied with "control of crime and corruption." Seventy-nine percent believe corruption is widespread in the Palestinian government. This contrasts with much higher satisfaction levels with most other areas of public life.

In Palestine, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with … ?

Palestinians perceive widespread corruption in both business and government:

3. General Dissatisfaction

Palestinians are highly negative about economic conditions in the territories. Only 10% say current economic conditions in Palestine are good; 87% say they are not good.

Compounding this, the majority (58%) believes economic conditions are worsening. Only 20% say they are getting better.

Satisfaction with efforts to increase the number and quality of jobs in Palestine ranks as low as satisfaction with the control of crime and corruption: 81% are dissatisfied; only 16% are satisfied.

Palestinians' economic despair fits within a larger picture of broad-based pessimism about Palestine more generally. Half of Palestinians (51%) rate conditions in the country using a highly negative score of 0 to 3 on a 0- to 10-point scale. Another 40% give it a moderate score of 4 to 6. Only 8% give it a positive score of 7 to 10.

Palestinians' retrospective rating, looking back five years, is much more positive. Only 20% perceive the situation in Palestine five years ago as highly negative. And, in a rare bright spot for this poll, Palestinians appear relatively optimistic about the future. But they are stunningly negative in their assessments of the present.

4. Anti-U.S. Sentiment

To the extent that Fatah was viewed as United States' and Israel's choice to win the election, this connection may have undermined Palestinian support for Fatah. Indeed, Hamas tried to exploit this with campaign banners asking, "If America and Israel say no to Hamas, what do you say?" (Late-breaking news that the United States had funded Palestinian social projects to aid Fatah's chances could have contributed to this.)

The United States, and the Bush administration specifically, is toxic among Palestinians. Only 14% say they approve of the leadership of the United States -- as low as their approval of Israel's leadership. The highest praise goes to the leadership of the United Arab Emirates, closely followed by Iran -- a country that has been in the news recently for the strident anti-Israel remarks of its leader.

A majority of Palestinians are not positive about any of the regional governments of the Middle East that were tested in the survey. It is noteworthy here that only a third or so of Palestinians approve of the leadership of Palestine.

Nor do they view favorably any of the major world governments tested. But the United States and Israel rank at the bottom (along with the United Kingdom and Iraq).

While Palestinian President Abbas is generally viewed favorably, four in five Palestinians view George W. Bush very unfavorably -- similar to opinions about Ariel Sharon. (Note that most of this survey was conducted prior to Sharon's stroke on Jan. 4.)

Gallup trends suggest that the Bush administration's policies in the Middle East have intensified Palestinian rancor against the United States. While a majority of Palestinians viewed both Bush and former President Bill Clinton unfavorably, the percentage viewing Bush very unfavorably is 82% today, versus 52% for Clinton in 2000.

The United States has minimal credibility among Palestinians today as an honest broker in the Palestinian-Israeli dispute. Only 11% of Palestinians have either a great deal or fair amount of trust in Bush to "help Israel and the Palestinians negotiate a peace treaty that is equally fair to both sides." About a quarter (28%) have "not much" trust, while the majority (58%) have no trust at all in the Bush administration on this issue.

Although it was not high even in 2000, Palestinian trust in the United States today on this dimension has plunged even further.

How much trust do you have in [Clinton/Bush] to help Israel and the Palestinians negotiate a peace treaty that is equally fair to both sides?

Survey Methods

These results are based on face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Palestinians, aged 15 and older, conducted Dec. 26, 2005, through Jan. 8, 2006. Respondents were interviewed in 60 sampling points throughout the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza Strip. Households were selected at random, and respondents within households were chosen at random according to Kish tables.

For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.