Americans More Optimistic High Gas Prices Will Decline

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- As recent news stories suggest that gas prices may have reached their peak, Americans express more confidence than they did a month ago that the recent rise in prices represents a temporary fluctuation rather than a permanent change. According to a Gallup poll conducted June 22-25, a clear majority of Americans -- 57% -- now express that hopeful point of view, while 39% feel the price change is likely to last indefinitely. A month ago, a Gallup poll found that Americans leaned to the pessimistic view, by a margin of 50% to 45%.

Americans Expect Price Improvement Within Six Months
Although optimistic about the long-term prospects of gas prices, Americans generally expect prices to remain high in the short run. Looking ahead to one month from now, Americans are divided about whether prices will go higher (38%), stay the same (39%) or decline (22%). Looking even further ahead, to six months from now, there is a noticeable shift toward expectations of lower prices, with 50% expressing that point of view, compared with 28% who say prices will remain the same, and 20% who expect prices to increase.

Americans' longer-term expectations about gas prices have not changed significantly from May to June, but their short-term expectations -- what will happen to gas prices over the next month -- have become much more optimistic. In May, over half -- 51% -- said prices would be higher, compared with 38% who say that now. And only 14% expected prices to be lower in May, compared with 22% who hold those expectations now.

Americans Blame Oil Companies and Oil-Producing Nations for Price Rise
While both parties try to gain politically by blaming the other for the increase in gas prices, most Americans are looking outside of Washington for the culprits. The polls show that 35% of Americans think oil companies are at least somewhat to blame, while an additional 30% think oil-producing nations are responsible. Only 18% think that either the federal government (11%) or the Clinton administration in particular (7%) is to blame for the higher gas prices. There are few partisan differences on these views. Fully one in five Americans (20%) express no opinion on the matter.

Who or what do you think is responsible for the increase in gas prices?(open-ended; allow 3 responses)

 

	First mention	Total mentions
	%	%
Oil companies	29	35
Oil-producing nations	23	30
Federal government	8	11
Clinton administration	4	7
American consumers	2	4
Greed/Profit motive	2	2
The economy	2	2
Big business	1	2
Politicians	1	2
Distributors	1	2
High taxes	1	2
US trade policies	1	1
Low supply/shortage	1	1
EPA regulations	1	1
Vehicle manufacturers	--	*
Energy Department policies	1	--
Other	2	3
No opinion	20	20

Impact of Higher Prices Greater Now than Last Month
Despite optimism about gas prices in the long run, more Americans today are saying that the higher prices are adversely affecting themselves or their families than said so a month ago. Forty-four percent of all Americans make that claim this month, up from 36% last month. Additionally, 50% of Americans in the latest poll say the price of gas will cause them to drive less this summer than they otherwise might have, up from 41% who expressed that view in May.

Men Most Likely to Have Become More Positive About Gas Price Increase
The shift in view on the permanency of the gas price hikes is more common among men and those with lower educational attainments than it is among women and college graduates. Currently, women take the more sanguine position about gas prices, expecting them to decline eventually, by a margin of 60% to 36% -- only slightly more optimistic than the 55% to 41% response Gallup found last month. By contrast, men today are much more optimistic than they were in May, by 52% to 43%, after taking the more pessimistic view last month by 59% to 36%. For men this represents a 32-point swing in attitude, compared with just a 10-point shift among women.

Similarly, college graduates express virtually the same opinion about gas prices this month as they did last, while the rest of the public shows an increase in optimism. This month, 55% of college graduates say the price rise is temporary, and 41% say it is permanent, compared with a 56% to 40% response in May -- just a 2-point shift. Those with a high school education or less show the greatest change, last month expecting permanently high gas prices by 55% to 38%, but now expecting the higher prices to be temporary by 58% to 36% -- a 39-point swing from May to June. Among Americans with some college, there is a comparable 21-point swing.

Do you think the current rise in gas prices represents -- a temporary fluctuation in prices, or a more permanent change in prices?
	Temporary	Permanent	Unsure
	%	%	%
Overall
May23-24	45	50	5
June 22-25	57	39	4
Gender
Male
May23-24	36	59	5
June 22-25	52	43	5
Female
May23-24	55	41	4
June 22-25	60	36	4
Education
Up to high school
May23-24	38	55	7
June 22-25	58	36	6
Some college
May23-24	45	53	2
June 22-25	55	42	3
College graduate
May23-24	56	40	4
June 22-25	55	41	4

Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,021 adults, 18 years and older, conducted June 22-25, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The question on fluctuations in the price of gas was asked of half the sample, while the two questions on the short-term and long-term expectations of gas prices were asked of the other half of the sample. For those questions, the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Turning to something else, as you may know, gasoline prices have risen to record highs in some parts of the country.

Do you think the current rise in gas prices represents --a temporary fluctuation in prices, or a more permanent change in prices?

BASED ON – 511 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; +/- 5 PCT PTS

 

	Temporary	More permanent	No opinion
	%	%	%
2000 Jun 22-25	57	39	4
2000 May 23-24	45	50	5
2000 Mar 30-Apr 2	60	37	3
2000 Mar 10-12	63	34	3

Looking ahead to one month from now, do you think gas prices at that time will be --higher than they are today, about the same, or lower than they are today?

BASED ON – 510 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; +/- 5 PCT PTS

 

	Higher	About the same	Lower	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2000 Jun 22-25	38	39	22	1
2000 May 23-24	51	33	14	2
2000 Mar 10-12	74	16	9	1

Looking ahead to six months from now, do you think gas prices at that time will be -- higher than they are today, about the same, or lower than they are today?

BASED ON -- 510 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B +/- 5 PCT PTS

 

	Higher	About the same	Lower	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2000 Jun 22-25	20	28	50	2
2000 May 23-24	24	25	49	2
2000 Mar 10-12	37	26	34	3

Have recent price increases in gasoline caused any financial hardship for you or your household?

 

	Yes, caused hardship	No, has not caused hardship	No opinion
	%	%	%
2000 Jun 22-25	44	56	*
2000 May 23-24	36	64	*
2000 Mar 30-Apr 2	39	61	*
2000 Mar 10-12	41	59	*
2000 Feb 14-15**	40	60	*

(**) Question wording: Have recent price increases in gasoline, diesel fuel and home fuel oil caused any financial hardship for you or your household?

Will the price of gas cause you to drive less than you might have otherwise this summer, or not?

 

	Yes	No	No opinion
2000 Jun 22-25	50%	49	1
2000 May 23-24	41%	57	2

*Less than 0.5%