GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- When the U.S. Senate voted last month against ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which bans the testing of nuclear devices by all countries in the world, some Democrats vowed to make it an election issue in the year 2000. But a Gallup poll taken the week after the Senate vote suggests that such an effort may be difficult. The poll shows that while most Americans support the general idea of the treaty, few were aware that it had just been rejected by the Senate. Barring a major communications effort by the treaty's proponents, by next year's election even fewer voters can be expected to remember the Senate action.
Conducted October 21-24, the poll shows that about two-thirds of Americans had heard of the treaty, but only about half that number were closely following the issue, and only a quarter of the public knew that the Senate had recently voted to defeat the treaty. When asked what the lawmakers should have done, 59% of respondents said the Senate should have voted to ratify the treaty -- with 39% saying they felt strongly and the other 20% not strongly about the matter. Another 29% said the Senate should have voted to defeat the treaty -- 18% who felt strongly about the issue and 11% who did not.
When given a third option -- withdrawing the treaty to consider at a later time -- 44% of respondents favored ratification of the treaty, 21% opted for withdrawing it from consideration, and 19% said the Senate should have defeated the treaty. The withdrawal consideration option was advocated by President Clinton once it became clear there were not enough votes in the Senate for ratification, but Senate Republican leaders scheduled the vote anyway.
Knowledge of Issue Not Related to Treaty
Support
Support for the treaty does not vary significantly by how closely
Americans were following the issue. Overall, just 8% of Americans
were following the issue very closely, and another 30% somewhat
closely. As expected, knowledge about the Senate vote is higher
among these two groups than among Americans who were not following
the issue closely. However, the margin of support for the treaty is
only slightly greater among the more knowledgeable -- 68% to 29%,
with 3% unsure -- than among those who were paying less attention
to the issue, who support the treaty by 55% to 29%, with 16%
expressing no opinion.
Widespread Support Across Partisan Spectrum
While there are some partisan differences in attitudes toward the
treaty, even Republicans give near majority support, with 50%
supporting Senate ratification and 39% favoring rejection of the
treaty. Among independents the margin in favor is 2-to-1 (62% to
28%), and among Democrats 3-to-1 (66% to 21%). Conservatives
support the treaty by 51% to 40%, while moderates and liberals
express support by about 3-to-1 margins.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted October 21-24, 1999. For results based on the
whole sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the
maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is
plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Recently the U.S. Senate considered an international treaty, called the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, that would have banned testing of any nuclear devices by all countries in the world, including the United States. Had you heard about that treaty before I just mentioned it, or not?
| Heard about it | 65% |
| Not heard about it | 34 |
| No opinion | 1 |
| 100% |
(If heard about treaty) How closely have you followed the arguments both for and against the treaty? Would you say you have followed them -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?
| Very closely | 8% |
| Somewhat closely | 30 |
| Not too closely | 22 |
| Not at all closely | 5 |
| NOT HEARD ABOUT IT (Q. 33) | 35 |
| No opinion | * |
| 100% |
Are you aware of whether or not the U.S. Senate recently voted to approve the treaty, or are you unsure what the Senate did? [IF AWARE: What did the Senate do?]
| Voted to defeat the treaty | 26% |
| Voted to ratify the treaty | 4 |
| Other (vol.) | 1 |
| No not aware | 60 |
| No opinion | 9 |
| 100% |
Regardless of what the Senate actually did, what do you think the Senate should have done -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Voted to ratify the treaty, 2) Withdrawn the treaty and considered it at a later time, 3) Voted to defeat the treaty]?
BASED ON -- 493 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Should have ratified treaty | 44% |
| Should have withdrawn it | 21 |
| Should have defeated the treaty | 19 |
| No opinion | 16 |
| OTHER (vol.) | * |
| 100% |
Regardless of what the Senate actually did, what do you think the Senate should have done -- [ROTATE:1) Voted to ratify the treaty (or) 2) Voted to defeat the treaty]?
BASED ON -- 512 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Voted to ratify the treaty | 59% |
| Voted to defeat the treaty | 29 |
| OTHER (vol.) | 1 |
| No opinion | 11 |
| 100% |
(vol.) volunteered response
* less than 0.5%