GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
London, U.K. -- The Tory Party increasingly resembles a small boat about to be swept over a waterfall, says Gallup's latest survey for The Telegraph.
The occupants paddle frantically, but there seems to be nothing they can do to resist the sweeping current.
The survey gives Labour the support of 47 percent of likely voters, down one percentage point since last week. The Conservatives have the backing of 31 percent, also a point down. Liberal Democrat support has risen by a single point, from 15 to 16 percent. None of the changes is statistically significant.
Indeed, the stability of support for the main parties throughout the campaign has been extraordinary. According to Gallup, Labour's support has varied only within the range of 47-48 percent, the Conservatives' within 31-32 percent and the Liberal Democrats', 13-16 percent.
The scale of change during campaigns is usually much greater. In 1997, Gallup showed the proportion of people saying they would vote Labour ranging from a high of 58 percent to a low of 46 percent. Support for the Liberal Democrats ranged from nine to 16 percent.
Because both major parties have dropped one point, Labour's lead over the Tories is unchanged at 16 points, equivalent to a swing in Labour's favour of one and a half percent since the last election. A swing of that magnitude would land Labour a net gain of about 15 seats and a parliamentary majority of more than 200.
Anti-Tory tactical voting could exact an even higher toll. Four years ago, Labour gained 15-20 additional seats as Liberal Democrat supporters switched tactically to Labour. The Liberal Democrats gained 10-15 extra seats as Labour supporters switched to them tactically.
The same could happen this time, thereby further increasing the anti-Conservative majority, especially as U.K. constituency boundaries in 2001, unlike last time, remain unchanged. Potential tactical voters have only to look at the results of the 1997 election, or be shown them, to know what tactical situation they are in.
Several prominent Conservatives are vulnerable to any swing away from them, even a small one and even without massive tactical voting. Among these are two members of the Shadow Cabinet, Oliver Letwin (West Dorset) and David Heathcoat-Amory (Wells). The colourful Michael Fabricant could go down in Lichfield. So could Sir Sydney Chapman in Chipping Barnet.
So far, the success story of the campaign, albeit on a relatively modest scale, has been the Liberal Democrats, who began three weeks ago on 13 percent and have pushed their share of support up to 16 percent, only a point short of what they achieved four years ago. Mounting Liberal Democrat strength is almost certainly another harbinger of widespread tactical voting.
That said, with all the polls showing large-scale Labour leads, fear of an over-large Labour majority could work in the Conservatives' favour over the next seven days. History suggests that voters are as likely to jump off bandwagons as on them.
For example, Labour's lead over the Conservatives on election day four years ago was considerably smaller than most of the opinion polls, including Gallup, had shown in the previous week. Turnout remains a matter of concern to all the parties.
Gallup's latest findings confirm the widespread expectation that turnout next Thursday will be lower than in any election since the last war. At this stage of the 1997 campaign, 72 percent of eligible electors were telling Gallup they would "definitely" vote, about the same proportion as actually did. Now the proportion saying they will vote has fallen to 66 percent.
However, there are few signs in the new Gallup data that the Conservatives will receive a substantial boost as a consequence of low turnout. Among those deemed by Gallup to be most likely to vote, Labour's lead over the Tories is 16 points. Among all potential voters, it is only three points more: 19 points.
Although much of Labour's support is undoubtedly shallow, it is more broadly based than at any previous general election. Labour is well ahead among women as well as men and in all age groups except the over-65s, where the two parties are more or less level.
Labour is also ahead in all social classes. White-collar workers are less likely to support Labour than are manual workers, but even in the broad middle class, the so-called ABC1s, Labour leads the Conservatives by 42 percent to 32 percent.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 1,462 -- respondents, aged 18+, from across Great Britain conducted May 28-29, 2001. Respondents who reported that they were not on the electoral register (5%) or definitely would not vote (6%) in the general election on June 7 have been excluded. For results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University, and is a political analyst and a special contributor for The Daily Telegraph. This article is reprinted by the Gallup Poll News Service with permission from The Daily Telegraph.
