GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
Despite the continued strength of the two-party system in U.S. elections, more people of voting age today consider themselves politically independent than identify with either the Republican or Democratic Parties. This finding is not new, but has been apparent in Gallup's national telephone surveys for most of the 1990s.
Today 38% of Americans aged eighteen and older consider themselves politically "independent" of either major party. Among this group, only 1-2% indicates belonging to a specific third party while the rest are unaffiliated. A slightly smaller percentage of Americans, 34%, consider themselves Democrats today while the smallest share, 28%, identify as Republicans.
These figures are based on over 10,000 telephone interviews conducted by the Gallup Poll in the first quarter of 1999 and have a margin of error of less than one percentage point.
Partisanship Steady in Recent Years
A pattern by which political independents outnumber Democrats by
three to four points, and Republicans trail Democrats by five to
six points, has been in place for most of President Clinton's term
in office. The major exception came in 1994 and 1995-the glory
years for the Republican majority in Congress-when the percentage
of Americans identifying with the Republican Party reached almost
as high as the Democratic figure. Even during this time period,
however, independents outnumbered Democrats by a few percentage
points. In 1996, by contrast, the percentage of self-declared
independents fell at the same time Democratic percentages
increased, perhaps due to the highly partisan nature of a
presidential election year combined with Bill Clinton's
popularity.
| Republican | Democratic | Independent | Dem Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999* | 28% | 34% | 38% | 6% |
| 1998 | 29 | 34 | 37 | 5 |
| 1997 | 29 | 34 | 37 | 5 |
| 1996 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 5 |
| 1995 | 30 | 31 | 39 | 1 |
| 1994 | 30 | 32 | 38 | 2 |
| 1993 | 29 | 34 | 37 | 5 |
| 1992 | 29 | 34 | 37 | 5 |
| 1991 | 33 | 31 | 36 | -2 |
| 1990 | 33 | 35 | 32 | 2 |
| 1989 | 33 | 35 | 32 | 2 |
| 1988 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 5 |
| * 1999 figure represents first quarter only | ||||
Independents See Good in Both Parties
Eschewing party membership should not necessarily be viewed as a
sign that independents reject what the Republican or Democratic
Parties stand for. Indeed, when asked this January to express their
feelings toward each party on a ten-point scale, both parties were
viewed favorably by a majority of political independents. Even
though the poll was taken in the midst of the highly partisan
impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton, 58% of independents
at the time said they had a favorable view of the Republican Party
and 70% felt favorably toward the Democratic Party.
Most members of the Republican and Democratic Parties, on the other hand, view the opposing party in negative terms.
PARTY ID OF RESPONDENT
| View of Republican Party | ||||
| Republican | Democratic | Independent | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorable | 91% | 29% | 58% | |
| Unfavorable | 8 | 68 | 34 | |
| View of Democratic Party | ||||
| Favorable | 43 | 94 | 70 | |
| Unfavorable | 56 | 5 | 23 | |
Furthermore, when asked if they lean toward one of the major two parties, approximately three out of four independents interviewed thus far in 1999 are willing to say they identify with either the Republicans or Democrats while only a quarter-representing about 9% of all Americans-insist they are truly independent, and lean to neither party.
Women Favor Democratic Party
Much is often made of the "gender gap" in American politics, with
women perceived to be more favorable than men toward the Democratic
Party. While not overwhelming, a significant gender difference in
partisanship is seen in Gallup's polls taken from January through
March of this year. Women identify themselves as Democrats by a
ten-point margin, 37% vs. 27%. By comparison, men identify as
Democrats by just two points, 32% vs. 30%.
Party ID by Gender, Jan-Mar 1999
| Men | Women | |
|---|---|---|
| Republican | 30% | 27% |
| Democratic | 32 | 37 |
| Independent | 38 | 36 |
Political Independence Highest Among Young
Adults
The current pattern of party identification across various age
groups in U.S. society is similar to what Gallup has seen in
earlier years. Young adults, aged 18-29, are the most inclined to
consider themselves independents, while senior citizens, those aged
65 and older, are most likely to be Democrats.
Americans who are approximately the same age as the baby boom generation, 30-49, are the most evenly divided of all age groups in affiliation between the Republican and Democratic Parties.
| 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 24% | 30% | 28% | 28% |
| Democratic | 35 | 33 | 34 | 38 |
| Independent | 41 | 37 | 38 | 34 |
Independent Percentages Took Off After Vietnam and
Watergate
In longer historical terms, Gallup records indicate that the
percentage of Americans calling themselves independent jumped at
two key intervals. One was between 1964 and 1968--spanning the
period when the Vietnam War became a major political controversy.
Over this period the percentage calling themselves independent
increased from 22% to 27%.
A second shift toward political independence was seen in the post-Watergate period between 1972 and 1975, when the number of unaffiliated respondents in Gallup surveys increased from 29% to 33%.
The balance of power between the two major parties has also shifted in the past several decades. From 1968 until Ronald Reagan's second term in office, only a quarter of Americans identified themselves as Republicans, while the percentage calling themselves Democrats ranged from 43% to 47%. Then, in 1984, the Republicans saw a six-percentage-point shift in their favor, bumping their percentages up from a quarter to roughly one-third of Americans. While this level of support for Republicans was sustained throughout the Republican Administration of George Bush, it appears that the Grand Old Party has lost some of this ground under the Clinton presidency.
It should be noted that Gallup measures of political party ID prior to 1988 rely on in-person rather than telephone surveys, and that the two methods of interviewing have been shown to produce slightly different results. Therefore special care needs to be taken in making pre-1988 and post-1988 comparisons of party affiliation.