GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, N.J. -- A new Gallup survey provides good news for the Republican Party relative to this year's Congressional races, showing Republican candidates leading the Democrats for the first time since the fall of last year. If the current numbers were to be sustained until election day, Republicans would easily retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
When asked which party's candidate they support in their congressional district this year, regular midterm election voters -- people who say they voted in 1994 and are still registered -- currently favor the Republicans over the Democrats by a margin of 48% to 45%.
History suggests that Republicans will do well in midterm elections when the sitting president is a Democrat, but it had appeared in recent months that President Clinton's popularity was boosting public support for Democratic congressional candidates and putting the Republican majority in some jeopardy. As recently as January of this year -- when President Clinton's job approval hit 60% -- a Gallup survey showed that the Democrats in Congress were favored over the Republicans by a six point margin, 49% to 43%.
The current poll showing Republicans back in the lead for the first time since October of 1997 may be a signal that public satisfaction with the state of the nation may now be a larger factor than President Clinton's popularity in determining public support for Congressional candidates.
GOP No Longer Dominant on Issues
While the current test election numbers are encouraging for the Republicans, it should be noted that the GOP does not enjoy the solid public preference on issues that they did when they won an upset victory at the polls four years ago. In 1994 the Republicans won a majority of seats in Congress at a time when there was considerable voter dissatisfaction with Clinton and the Democratic Party. At the same time the Republicans seemed to successfully present themselves as superior in dealing with economic matters.
This year Republican strength appears to be rooted in a different dynamic: the public's general satisfaction with incumbent office-holders, regardless of party. Because Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Congress, they are poised to benefit most from the voters' satisfaction with the status quo.
Incumbency Advantage
1998 is clearly emerging as a good year for incumbents. Gallup polls in recent months have recorded high levels of public confidence in the economy as well as strong public optimism about their personal finances. Overall, well over half of Americans now say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country.
Furthermore, Americans seem happy with both parties, giving record high ratings to President Clinton and Congress since the beginning of 1998. According to the latest Gallup survey, 63% of Americans now approve of the job Clinton is doing as president. At the same time, 58% believe that Congress under Republican leadership since 1994 has been a "success." And, for the first time in two decades, more Americans have said in 1998 that they approve, rather than disapprove, of the job Congress is doing.
An even more direct measure of public satisfaction with the politicalstatus quocan be found in the high percentage of Americans, 64%, who currently say the U.S. representative in their district deserves to be re-elected. A majority, 56%, also say that most members of Congress deserve another term -- something that hasn't happened previously on this trend which dates back to 1991.
All this is in sharp contrast with 1994, when Clinton's popularity was in the low 40s and incumbency was viewed by voters with suspicion. At that time, when the Democrats had majority control of Congress, barely half of Americans, 53%, said their member of Congress deserved to be reelected and only 39% said most members deserved another term.
Sharing the Glory
Perhaps because of the nation's current sense of well-being, and the fact that political power in Washington is shared, the Republicans in Congress now share credit with the Democrats for the nation's economic accomplishments.
In September of 1994, Republicans had a ten point advantage over the Democrats as the party perceived more likely to "keep the country prosperous." Today, the parties are statistically even on this measure. In 1994 Republicans were slightly preferred as the party best able to handle the "most important problem facing the nation." In the current poll, the Democrats have a slight edge on this question.
Both parties today receive high marks from the public for being able to run the government effectively and bring about changes the country needs. In 1994, both parties scored substantially lower on these counts.
The Gingrich Factor
While Clinton appears to be a positive factor for the Democratic Party, there has long been speculation that House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a drag on the Republican Party. Right from the start of his term as Speaker, Gingrich's public approval ratings were quite weak. In February of 1995, for example, only 38% of Americans approved of the job he was doing compared to 48% who disapproved. Those ratings hit bottom in March of last year when only 25% approved and 63% disapproved.
The good news for the Republicans this year is that even Newt Gingrich is benefitting from public satisfaction with the country, with 45% now approving of him and only 46% disapproving. In 1996 -- when Gingrich's ratings were quite negative -- the Democratic party attempted to nationalize their campaign against Republican candidates by attacking Gingrich. However, Republicans were still able to hold on to a majority of seats. Coupling that result with Gingrich's relatively good ratings today, it is doubtful he will be a pivotal factor in the 1998 elections.
METHODOLOGY
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, 18 years and older, conducted April 17-19, 1998. For results based on samples of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district -- the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?(ROTATED)
(If unsure, asked:)As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party's candidate or to the Republican Party's candidate?(ROTATED)
1998 Midterm Elections - Trend
| Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | Undecided/other (vol.) | |
| Regular Voters | |||
| 98 Apr 17-19 | 45% | 48 | 7 |
| 98 Jan 16-18 | 49% | 43 | 8 |
| 97 Nov 6-9 | 48% | 43 | 9 |
| 97 Oct 27-29 | 44% | 48 | 8 |
| 97 Aug 22-25 | 50% | 43 | 7 |
| 97 Jul 25-27 | 48% | 45 | 7 |