GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
London, U.K. -- Gallup's eve-of-poll survey for The Daily Telegraph confirms the impression that the two main parties and their leaders have been largely wasting their time over the past four weeks.
Labour looked as though it would win a handsome victory at the beginning of this campaign. It still does. For the first time in its history, Gallup's numbers have varied scarcely at all between the dissolution of a Parliament and polling day.
Support for Labour has varied only within the range of 47-48 percent, while support for the Tories has remained within the range of 30-33 percent. Only the Liberal Democrats have made modest progress. All the polls suggest that Charles Kennedy has scored a considerable personal success.
The new Gallup survey -- the whole of which was conducted yesterday -- shows Labour with the backing of 47 percent of probable voters, the Conservatives with the backing of 30 percent and the Liberal Democrats with the backing of 18 percent.
Labour's lead over the Tories -- 17 points -- is larger than it was either in Gallup's final survey before the last general election or on polling day itself. If the new findings -- or anything like them -- are replicated on the ground, there will be a swing from the Conservatives to Labour today.
If that happens, it will be the first swing toward the governing party since Margaret Thatcher's triumph and the Labour Party's debacle under Michael Foot at the 1983 general election.
Differential voting in different regions and the possibility of tactical voting render suspect attempts to extrapolate the precise size of Labour's parliamentary majority from the raw voting data.
Even so, a swing of 2.0 percent -- the size indicated by Gallup's latest findings -- would give Labour a parliamentary majority of about 210 seats. The Conservatives, with 164 Commons seats since their loss in the Romsey by-election, could find their numbers still further reduced. The outcome for the Liberal Democrats will depend almost entirely on tactical voting and intense campaigning in individual constituencies.
The result indicated by the poll would give the Labour Party its largest-ever number of seats in the House of Commons and also give the party its largest share of the popular vote since Harold Wilson's victory over the Tories under Edward Heath in 1966.
Further witness to the improvements to Labour's underlying position is provided by the responses to two questions Gallup asked in its 1997 eve-of-poll survey and again yesterday.
As the figures in the chart headed "Then and Now" indicate, Tony Blair's lead over William Hague as the person "who would make the best Prime Minister" is now far greater than his lead was over John Major four years ago -- 32 points compared with 10.
In addition, Labour has enhanced its reputation as the party of economic competence.
As the figures in the chart show, Labour four years ago led the Conservatives by only six points on the crucial issue of economic competence. Labour's lead today is a massive 26 points.
Gallup's data continue to point to a low turnout. Four years ago, 78 percent of respondents told Gallup they would "definitely" go out to vote but in the event only 71 percent actually did so.
The proportion yesterday saying they would definitely vote was only 73 percent -- a fall of five points. If the disparity between those who say they will vote and those who actually vote is as great today as it was in 1997, the turnout will be in the order of 66 percent -- roughly the figure Gallup has been expecting right from the beginning. Gallup's final figures are subject to a random sampling error of plus or minus two percent.
However, even such a "best case" scenario would still leave the Conservatives 11 points adrift of Labour. The only possibility that still exists for large-scale change lies almost certainly in a combination of an even larger fall in turnout today than Gallup is anticipating and, simultaneously, a turnout that is sharply differentiated in the Conservatives' favour.
Such a combination of circumstances is possible. It is also very unlikely.
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With Only One Day Remaining |
||||
|
Final 1997 Gallup |
Actual 1997 Result |
Now* |
||
|
Labour |
47 |
44.4 |
47 |
|
|
Conservatives |
33 |
31.4 |
30 |
|
|
Liberal Democrats |
14 |
17.2 |
18 |
|
|
Others |
6 |
7.0 |
5 |
|
|
Labour lead |
14 |
13.0 |
17 |
|
|
* based on 66% who seem most likely to vote |
||||
|
Then and Now: 1997 and 2001 compared |
||
|
Best Prime Minister |
1997 |
2001 |
|
Tony Blair |
37 |
52 |
|
John Major/William Hague |
27 |
20 |
|
Paddy Ashdown/Charles Kennedy |
14 |
15 |
|
Best to handle the economy |
|
|
|
Labour |
44 |
56 |
|
Conservatives |
38 |
30 |
|
Labour advantage |
6 |
26 |
|
The Swingometer |
|
|
To deprive Labour of its overall majority, Conservatives need a swing of |
7.2% |
|
To obtain overall majority of their own, Conservatives need a swing of |
11.5% |
|
The largest postwar swing to any opposition party was to Labour in 1997 |
10.2% |
|
The swing from Conservative to Labour in the last snapshot survey is |
2.0% |
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University, and is
a political analyst and a special contributor for The Daily
Telegraph. This article is reprinted by the Gallup Poll News
Service with permission from The Daily Telegraph.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 2,399 -- respondents, aged 18+, from across Great Britain conducted June 6, 2001. Respondents who reported that they were not on the electoral register (5%) or definitely would not vote (6%) in the general election on June 7 have been excluded.
For results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points.
