Gore Stock Slipping Among Democrats

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Generally quiet since conceding the election in December 2000, Al Gore is set to give a major political speech -- and possibly position himself for a third run at the presidency in 2004 -- when he addresses Florida Democrats this week. At this early stage, Gore is still considered the front-runner for the nomination, and recent Gallup polls show that he beats other Democratic presidential hopefuls in a test ballot among Democrats. However, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that Democrats are beginning to sour on Gore, as more now say they do not want him to run for president than say they do. Additionally, his support in the test ballot has slipped over time, and the new poll shows only about a quarter of Democrats think it is very likely that Gore would win the Democratic nomination in 2004 if he were to run.

Plurality of Democrats Do Not Want Gore to Run

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted April 5-7 shows that 48% of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats do not want Gore to run for president in 2004, while 43% do. This marks a dramatic change from last August, when roughly two-thirds of Democrats supported a Gore 2004 presidential bid.

Do You Want Al Gore to Run for President in 2004, or Not? (Among Democrats)

This shift in preference has largely occurred across the board. Democrats in nearly all key demographic subgroups show a shift of 20 percentage points away from wanting Gore to run for president in 2004. One explanation for the shift may be a change in the political context. Last August, President Bush's job-approval rating stood at 55%, compared to the 76% rating he currently enjoys. Among Democrats who currently approve of Bush, 50% do not want Gore to run in 2004, while 41% do. Last August, 61% of Democrats who approved of Bush still wanted Gore to run. But even among Democrats who disapprove of Bush, support for a Gore presidential bid has fallen from 66% in August to 53% now.

Gore does, however, still lead the field of 2004 Democratic presidential contenders in the most recent Gallup preference poll of March 22-24, with 26% of Democratic registered voters favoring him. New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton places second with 18%, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle comes in third at 9%, and Gore's 2000 vice presidential running mate, Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, finishes fourth at 8%.

Preference for Democratic Nominee for President in 2004, Among Democratic Registered Voters^

Candidate	Percentage
Al Gore, former vice president	26%
Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York senator	18
Tom Daschle, Senate Democratic leader	9
Joe Lieberman, Connecticut senator	8
Dick Gephardt, House Democratic leader	6
John Kerry, Massachusetts senator	6
Bill Bradley, former New Jersey senator	5
Joe Biden, Delaware senator	2
The Reverend Al Sharpton	2
John Edwards, North Carolina senator	3
Howard Dean, Vermont governor	2
Other	2
No one	5
No opinion	6

^ BASED ON -- 381 -- DEMOCRATIC/DEMOCRATIC-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS; ±6 PCT. PTS.

However, the percentage of Democrats favoring a Gore nomination has fallen in recent months, from 32% in August to 30% in January, to 26% now. The largest gain for any candidate during that time has been Daschle's seven-point gain, from 2% to 9%.

Preference for Democratic Nominee for President in 2004 (Among Registered Democrats)

Despite his status as the front-runner, only 25% of Democrats think it is very likely that Gore will win the Democratic nomination in 2004. An additional 37% think it is somewhat likely, and 36% think it is not likely to happen.

Democrats Believe Gore Should Refrain From Criticizing Bush

Gore is scheduled to give an address to Florida Democrats this week in a continuing effort to put himself back into public view. Some have speculated that he might take the opportunity to criticize some of President Bush's policies. The vast majority of Democrats, 82%, believe that Gore should not say anything critical of the president, while only 15% believe he should.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 459 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 18 years and older, conducted April 5-7, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you want Al Gore to run for president in 2004, or not?

 

 

 

	Yes	No	No opinion
2002 Apr 5-7	43%	48	9
2001 Aug 3-5	65%	31	4

If Al Gore runs for president in 2004, how likely do you think it is that he will win the Democratic nomination for president -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

 

 

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
2002 Apr 5-7	25%	37	25	11	2

 

 

As you may know, Al Gore has not spoken out in opposition to any of George W. Bush's policies since Bush became president. What do you think Al Gore should do NOW -- [ROTATED: he should publicly criticize Bush administration policies that he opposes, (or) he should continue to say nothing critical about Bush]?

 

 

 

	Should criticize	Should say nothing critical	No opinion
2002 Apr 5-7	15%	82	3