Do Americans Understand Bush Rationale for Striking Iraq?

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Answering questions over the weekend about his timetable for possibly attacking Iraq, President Bush said he believes that the American people understand that "weapons of mass destruction in the hands of leaders such as Saddam Hussein are very dangerous for ourselves." That rationale for launching a new military assault is not good enough for some, such as House Majority Leader Dick Armey, who recently said that a U.S. attack on Iraq at this time would be "unprovoked" and in violation of international law. But aside from the merits of the proposal, do Americans, as Bush suggests, understand why the United States might attack Iraq?

Major Conclusion

A majority of Americans recently told Gallup that they do understand why the United States is considering new military action against Iraq. Most of these believe it has to do with threats that Hussein would use weapons of mass destruction or terrorism more generally. At the same time, a substantial minority of Americans, 44%, is uncertain of the reasons involved.

Details

• According to the Aug. 5-8 Gallup survey, 56% of Americans believe they have a clear idea of why the United States may invade Iraq. But a large minority is uncertain of why the United States might take this action, including 39% who expressly say they do not have a clear idea and 5% who have no opinion.

• The responses among Republicans and Democrats nationwide indicate the question has political overtones. Most Republicans (72%) respond positively, saying they do understand why the United States may attack Iraq. Democrats are more uncertain, with the majority (55%) saying they do not understand the rationale or have no opinion. Independents fall in between, with a slight majority (52%) saying they understand.

Would you say you do -- or do not -- have a clear idea why the United States is considering new military action against Iraq?
	National Adults	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%	%
Yes	56	72	52	45
No	39	25	42	49
Unsure	5	3	6	6

• Among the 56% of Americans who feel they understand the reason for attacking Iraq, 30% (17% of all Americans) believe it has to do with Iraq's weapons capabilities. Most respondents in this category mention the possibility that Iraq is developing nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. Along the same lines, another 3% of all Americans cite Hussein's refusal to allow U.N. weapons inspectors into Iraq.
• Although related to the threat of weapons, a different reason given by 17% of Americans is that a U.S. attack on Iraq would be aimed at preventing terrorism, particularly against the United States. Many in this group say Iraq sponsors terrorism through funding and/or training. However, an additional 2% say specifically that Hussein was responsible for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, implying that a U.S. attack now would be retaliatory.
• For 9%, the reason for invading Iraq is Hussein himself, either to suppress him or remove him from power.
• Two percent see this as an effort to "finish the job" started in the 1991 Gulf War, which left Hussein in power.
• Eight percent see it as an effort toward establishing peace and stability, either by removing the threat to the United States, or to Israel, or to the Middle East more generally.
• Only 2% of Americans believe the reason for attacking Iraq is to protect the United States' oil interests there.

Implications

Polling has shown that Americans find both Iraq and Saddam Hussein quite objectionable. In a recent Gallup poll, 88% of Americans said they had an unfavorable view of Iraq; in 1998, 96% had an unfavorable view of Hussein. In a poll taken in April 2001, 56% of Americans described Iraq as an "enemy" of the United States and another 30% called it "unfriendly." Only 10% rated it in positive terms as either an ally or friendly.

It is useful to view the current data on Iraq against this backdrop. Without a doubt, most Americans view Iraq unfavorably, yet barely half say they clearly understand why the United States might take military action against it. It could be that the 44% of Americans who are not clear on the rationale are not so much asking "Why?" but "Why now?" For them, the case has not been made.

Other evidence that a large segment of Americans is not yet convinced that a new military attack on Iraq is necessary:

• When asked which should be the higher priority for the United States, working to establish peace in the Middle East between the Palestinians and the Israelis, or working to overthrow Hussein in Iraq, the majority of Americans (52%) say peace in the Middle East; only 42% say overthrowing Hussein.

• Similarly, only 47% of Americans rate the removal of Hussein from power in Iraq as a "very important" foreign policy goal of the United States. Few rate it as unimportant, but almost four in 10 fall into the "somewhat important" category, indicating their mindset is far different from that of the Bush advisors who believe the mission is urgent.
• A Fox News poll in June found just a bare majority of Americans (55%) describing Iraq as a "major threat" to the United States.

These kinds of measures could serve as useful indicators down the road of whether the pro-attack argument is making inroads among Americans.

Does it matter? Not entirely. Just because a large segment of Americans feel uncertain about the reasons or importance of attacking Iraq does not mean that they won't back the president if he decides to pursue that course. In fact, when asked whether they would support a new military incursion in Iraq, a majority of Americans generally do. A CBS News poll in July found 73% of Americans in favor of the United States' taking military action against Iraq to try to remove Hussein from power; just 21% were opposed. (Gallup puts the support figure slightly lower, at 59%, when mentioning that U.S. ground troops would be involved.)

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Aug. 5-8, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Would you say you do – or do not – have a clear idea why the United States is considering new military action against Iraq?

 

	Yes, do	No, do not	No opinion
2002 Aug 5-8	56%	39	5

As far as you know, what are the reasons why the United States may take new military action against Iraq? [OPEN-ENDED AND CODE]

ASKED OF -- 590 -- ADULTS WHO HAVE A CLEAR IDEA WHY U.S. MAY TAKE NEW MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ

 

2002 Aug 5-8	Have clear idea	Percentage of total sample of national adults
	%	%
Fear of chemical/biological warfare/weapons	30	17
Fear of terrorism	30	17
To promote peace/Iraq a threat to U.S.	13	7
Saddam Hussein is evil	10	6
To get rid of Saddam Hussein	6	3
Iraq will not let inspectors in/comply with treaties	6	3
Oil	4	2
Iraq had something to do with 9/11 terrorist attacks	4	2
To finish what was started years ago/what George H.W. Bush failed to do	3	2
To stabilize situation in the Middle East	2	1
Current actions are ineffective/have to do it	2	1
Other	14	8
No opinion	4	2
Total	128%	71%
Total adds to more than 100% due to multiple responses

Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of [RANDOM ORDER]very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? How about -- [INSERT NEXT ITEM]?

Iraq	Very favorable	Mostly favorable	Mostly unfavorable			Very unfavorable		No opinion	Total favorable			Total unfavorable
	%	%		%	%		%			%	%
2002 Feb 4-6	2	4		39	49		6			6	88
2001 Feb 1-4 ^	2	7		34	51		6			9	85
2000 Nov 13-15	2	4		35	53		6			6	88
1999 May 7-9	1	4		38	53		4			5	91
1999 Feb 8-9	2	5		27	60		6			7	87
1996 Mar 8-10	1	5		34	52		8			6	86
1992 Feb 6-9	1	3		30	62		4			4	92
1991 Aug 8-11	1	6		32	54		7			7	86
1991 Mar 14-17	2	5		26	62		5			7	88
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2	*	3		17	73		7			3	90

Would you favor or oppose sending American troops back to the Persian Gulf in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq?

BASED ON -- 519 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

 

		Favor	Oppose	No opinion
		%	%	%
2002 Jun 17-19		59	34	7
2001 Nov 26-27 ^		74	20	6
2001 Feb 19-21 ^		52	42	6
1993 Jun 29-30 ^		70	27	3
1992 Mar 30-Apr 5 ^ †		55	40	5
^	Asked of a full sample.
†	Life Magazine/Gallup.

As far as you are concerned, should the removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq be a very important foreign policy goal of the U.S., a somewhat important goal, not too important, or not an important goal at all?

 

	Very important	Somewhat important	Not too important	Not important at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2002 Jun 17-19	47	36	7	7	3
2002 Apr 5-7	45	38	10	6	1
2002 Mar 22-24	60	28	6	5	1

What should be a higher priority for the U.S. -- [ROTATED: working to establish peace in the Middle East between the Palestinians and Israelis, (or) working to overthrow Saddam Hussein in Iraq]?

 

	Peace in the Middle East	Overthrow Hussein in Iraq	No opinion
2002 Jun 21-23	52%	42	6