Times of war are often accompanied by surges in public support
-- which are called "rally effects" -- and the recent war with Iraq
was no different. Many Gallup measures experienced an increase in
positive opinion in the weeks leading up to the U.S. victory,
including public approval of the way Congress is handling its job.
A new Gallup Poll* demonstrates that as military activity in Iraq
has waned, so too has the short-lived rally in opinion of the way
Congress is handling its job.
A Brief Rally
An April 7-9 Gallup Poll showed a 10-percentage-point rise in
public approval of Congress compared with March data, from 48% to
58%. The latter number was the highest rating Congress had received
in 12 months, and certainly the highest since the Republicans
gained control of Congress in late 2002. This rally did not last
long, however, as a poll conducted last week shows a return to the
levels typical of earlier this year, with 49% approving of the way
Congress is handling its job and 44% disapproving.
The Usual Suspects
Opinion of the Republican-controlled Congress is undoubtedly
linked to respondents' political affiliations. Six in 10
Republicans (61%) say they approve of the way Congress is handling
its job, compared with 47% of independents and just 38% of
Democrats.
Opinion of the economy is another relevant factor. Among those
who say that economic conditions are excellent or good, 58% approve
of the way Congress is doing its job. Among those who rate the
economy fair or poor, the percentage approving of Congress dips to
46%. Although it should be pointed out that economic ratings are
influenced by one's partisan affiliation.
Generation Gap?
Consistent with what Gallup has observed for some time, younger
Americans are much more likely to approve of Congress than older
Americans are. A majority (62%) of the youngest adults -- 18- to
29-year-olds -- say they approve of the way Congress is handling
its job. The percentage approving decreases steadily with age.
Among those in the oldest group, aged 65 and older, less than a
third (31%) say they approve of Congress. The reasons for that
trend are unclear, whether it is due to greater optimism among
younger generations, or part of a generational change with younger
generations not adopting as negative a disposition toward Congress
as older generations tended to.
Bottom Line
The short-lived rise in American approval of Congress is
typical, as this politically divided body often cannot sustain a
rally to the degree that a president can. Economic conditions and
political opinions definitely play a role in the return to more
typical ratings of Congress, but a significant age gap exists as
well. All of this sets the stage for what is sure to be heated
congressional debate over President Bush's proposed tax-cut
package.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national
adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 5-7, 2003. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3%.
