Clinton Memoir Viewed With Grain of Salt

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll investigating public reaction to Hillary Clinton's new memoir, Living History, finds that a majority of Americans don't believe Clinton's account that she did not believe her husband was having an affair with Monica Lewinsky until he revealed it to her about eight months after it was first reported. Only 35% believe she is telling the truth; 56% say she is not telling the truth. At the same time, only 14% say the book is less candid and honest than other political memoirs are.

Compared with other memoirs written by political figures, do you think Hillary Clinton's book is – more honest and candid or less honest and candid, or about the same as other memoirs?

June 9-10, 2003

In the same vein, relatively few Americans consider her memoir a "history" book. When asked where it should be placed on bookstore and library shelves, half the public says it belongs in the political section; only 16% would put it in the history section. But contrary to her harshest conservative critics, only 22% of Americans think it belongs in fiction because it is so inaccurate.

Which of the following best describes your view of where Hillary Clinton's new book should go in a bookstore or library? It should go in – the history section because it is as accurate as most history books, the political section because it is so political in nature, or the fiction section because it is so inaccurate?

June 9-10, 2003

Clinton's Image Polished Slightly

Few Americans were willing to admit in the June 9-10 survey that the recent publicity surrounding Sen. Clinton has altered their sympathy for her. An equal number (11% each) are now either more sympathetic or less sympathetic toward her, while three-quarters say their opinion of her has not changed.

Despite what people say, Clinton's current favorable rating is slightly more positive than it has been in the past several months. In the previous four surveys, dating back to September 2002 -- the public was about evenly divided in its reaction to her. Today, she tends to be seen in a positive light: 53% have a favorable impression of her and 43% have an unfavorable impression.

Perceptions of Clinton are now on the high side of where they have been over the past two years. Since January 2000, her net favorable rating (the percentage favorable minus the percentage unfavorable) has ranged from +17 to -9. Longer term, however, she is viewed less favorably than she was at her peak of public popularity in early 1999. In that period, close to two-thirds viewed her favorably and only one-third viewed her unfavorably.

Opinion of Hillary Clinton

Although Clinton is enjoying some renewed public popularity, the electorate is generally resistant to supporting her candidacy should she run for president in 2008. Only 20% of registered voters nationwide say they would be very likely to vote for her; another 21% would be somewhat likely -- for a combined total of 41% who seem amenable to her presidential bid. On the opposite end, 45% say they are "not at all likely" to vote for her, while another 12% say they are not very likely to do so. When this was last asked in November 2000, slightly more registered voters (47%) said they would be very or somewhat likely to vote for her.

When asked for their predictions, nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) say the former first lady will run for president someday.

Americans Counsel Against Divorce

Since the Lewinsky scandal erupted, Sen. Clinton has occasionally been pressed to explain why she remained married. Perhaps her explanation has been persuasive to the American people -- or perhaps Americans are simply not willing to endorse divorce. Whatever the reason, a majority of respondents seem to agree with her decision to stand by him: 53% say she should not have divorced him when he admitted the affair, and 59% say she should not divorce him now.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 9-10, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... How about...

Hillary Rodham Clinton

 

		Favor- able		Unfavo- rable	No opinion
2003		%		%	%
2003 Jun 9-10		53		43	4
2003 May 30-Jun 1#		43		43	14
2003 Mar 14-15		45		46	9
2002
2002 Dec 16-17		48		46	6
2002 Sep 23-26		47		44	9
2001
2001 Aug 3-5		51		44	5
2001 Mar 5-7		44		53	3
2001 Feb 19-21		49		44	7
2001 Feb 1-4		52		43	5
2000
2000 Nov 13-15		56		39	5
2000 Oct 25-28		52		43	5
2000 Aug 4-5		45		50	5
2000 Feb 4-6		55		39	6
1999
1999 Dec 9-12		48		48	4
1999 Sep 23-26		56		40	4
1999 Aug 3-4		56		41	3
1999 Jul 22-25		62		35	3
1999 Jun 25-27		56		42	2
1999 Mar 5-7		65		31	4
1999 Feb 19-21		65		30	5
1999 Feb 4-8		66		31	3
1998
1998 Dec 28-29		67		29	4
1998 Oct 9-12 ‡		63		33	4
1998 Sep 14-15		61		33	6
1998 Aug 21-23		61		33	6
1998 Aug 20 ^		60		30	10
1998 Aug 18 ^		64		29	7
1998 Aug 10-12		60		36	4
1998 Aug 7-8		60		35	5
1998 Feb 13-15		60		36	4
1998 Jan 30-Feb 1		64	34			2
1998 Jan 28 ^		61	34			5
1998 Jan 24-25		61	33			6
1997
1998 Jan 23-24		60	35			5
1997 Dec 18-21		56	38			6
1997 Oct 27-29		61	34			5
1997 Jun 26-29		51	42			7
1997 Feb 24-26		51	42			6
1997 Jan 31-Feb 2		55	39			6
1997 Jan 10-13		56	37			7
1996
1996 Oct 26-29 ‡		49	43			8
1996 Aug 28-29 †		51	41			8
1996 Aug 16-18 †		47	48			5
1996 Aug 5-7 †		48	45			7
1996 Jun 18-19		46	47			6
1996 Mar 15-17		47	48			5
1996 Jan 12-15		43	51			6
1995
1995 Jul 7-9		50	44			6
1995 Mar 17-19		49	44			7
1995 Jan 16-18		50	44			6
1994
1994 Nov 28-29		50	44			6
1994 Sep 6-7		48	47			5
1994 Jul 15-17		48	46			6
1994 Apr 22-24		56	40			4
1994 Mar 25-27		52	42			6
1994 Mar 7-8		55	40			5
1994 Jan 15-17		57	36			7
1993
1993 Nov 2-4		58	34			8
1993 Sep 24-26		62	27			11
1993 Aug 8-10		57	33			10
^	Based on a one-night poll.
†	Based on likely voters.
‡	Based on registered voters.
#	Asked as stand-alone question
	2002-March 2003 WORDING: New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for president in 2008, how likely would you be to vote for her -- very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?

 

		Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not very likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
National Adults
2003 Jun 9-10		21	21	12	44	2
2000 Nov 13-15 ^		26	21	12	39	2
Registered Voters
2003 Jun 9-10 †		20	21	12	45	2
2000 Nov 13-15 ^		26	21	12	39	2
^	WORDING: If Hillary Rodham Clinton were to run for president in 2004 or 2008, how likely would you be to vote for her -- very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?
†	Based on –891—registered voters.

Regardless of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton will – or will not – run for president someday?

 

	Yes, will	No, will not	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	73%	22	5

Based on what you have seen or read about Hillary Clinton in the last few days, would you say you are now – [ROTATED: more sympathetic toward her, less sympathetic toward her], or have your views not changed?

 

	More sympathetic	Less sympathetic	No change	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	11%	11	75	3

In her new book, Hillary Clinton says that she did not believe that Bill Clinton had an affair with Monica Lewinsky until he admitted it to her about eight months after the story was first reported. Do you think Hillary Clinton is – or is not – telling the truth about this?

 

	Yes, is	No, is not	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	35%	56	9

Compared with other memoirswritten by political figures, do you think Hillary Clinton's book is – [ROTATED: more honest and candid (or) less honest and candid], or about the same as other memoirs?

BASED ON –504—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

 

	More honest and candid	Less honest and candid	About the same	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	12%	14	49	25

Which of the following best describes your view of where Hillary Clinton's new book should go in a bookstore or library? It should go in – [ROTATED: the history section because it is as accurate as most history books, the political section because it is so political in nature, (or) the fiction section because it is so inaccurate]?

BASED ON –525—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

 

	History section	Political section	Fiction section	Other (vol.)	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	16%	50	22	3	9

Do you think Hillary Clinton should – or should not – have divorced Bill Clinton when he admitted his affair with Monica Lewinsky?

BASED ON –504—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

 

	Yes, should	No, should not	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	27%	53	20

Do you think Hillary Clinton should – or should not – divorce Bill Clinton now?

BASED ON –525—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

 

	Yes, should	No, should not	No opinion
2003 Jun 9-10	21%	59	20