Last week's headlines were filled with encouraging economic
news. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted that the U.S. economy
will soon rebound, and the National Bureau of Economic Research
announced that the economy has been in a recovery phase since the
end of its recession in November 2001. It remains to be seen what
effect, if any, these latest announcements will have on the
American public. And there is a considerable amount of concern to
overcome.
In a July 7-9 Gallup Poll*, which followed a mixed bag of
economic news that included record unemployment numbers and another
interest rate cut, nearly half of Americans mentioned some aspect
of the economy as the nation's most important problem for the
fourth month in a row. Twenty-seven percent of Americans
spontaneously mentioned the economy in general as the top problem,
and 13% mentioned unemployment or jobs. The federal budget deficit,
taxes, lack of money, and the high cost of living or inflation were
also mentioned.
Although it's a political hot button, concern about the economy
crosses party lines. Republicans, independents, and Democrats all
mention the economy as the nation's top problem. However, the
percentage of Republicans mentioning the economy in general has
declined since May, and is now significantly lower than the
percentage of Democrats mentioning it.
It's Not Just the Economy
Though the economy and unemployment loom large, they aren't the
only problems on Americans' minds. Included among the top
non-economic concerns are fear of war and the situation in Iraq,
terrorism, decline of morals and family, and the ethics of
politicians. There has been little change in the percentage of
Americans naming terrorism as the nation's top problem in recent
months. However, the percentage of Republicans mentioning terrorism
is down significantly, from 20% in June to 12% in July. The
percentage mentioning Iraq dropped abruptly in early April as the
major fighting wound down (from 29% in early March to 16% in early
April), and declined further in May to roughly its current
level.
Are You Satisfied?
The July poll finds Americans split in their satisfaction "with
the way things are going in the United States at this time." Fifty
percent of Americans said they are satisfied with the way things
are currently going in the United States, and 48% are dissatisfied.
In March, April, and May, satisfaction ranged between 54% and
60%.
Political partisanship is strongly related to the likelihood to
claim satisfaction with the way things are going in the United
States. Slightly fewer Republicans are satisfied in July (70%) than
were satisfied in June (76%), but they still remain the most
content. Democrats, at 34% satisfied, are the least content among
those who identify with a particular political party, but they are
more satisfied than they were in June (26%). Independents, 44% of
whom are satisfied, are in between, but closer to Democrats' level
of satisfaction.
July's data also reveal a gender gap in satisfaction. In July,
56% of men said they are satisfied with the way things are going,
compared to 45% of women who said the same. This 11-point gap
between men and women is the largest measured since the March poll
conducted shortly after the war began. The gap was much narrower
last month, when men and women were about equally likely to say
they are satisfied -- 49% vs. 46%, respectively.
Bottom Line
If tax cuts, rising stock prices, and lower interest rates will
spur U.S. economic growth, as Greenspan predicts, we may see more
movement away from American concern about the economy, and more
satisfaction with the way things are going. However, it will almost
certainly take more than predictions of economic growth to ease
Americans' economic worries -- they need to see such predictions
come true.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006
national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 7-9, 2003. For
results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say
with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is
±3%.
