Among the plethora of second-tier issues (behind terrorism and
the economy) that may come into play in next year’s
presidential election, the effect of gun control may be one of the
hardest to predict. Gallup’s most recent annual survey on
crime issues* found that a slight majority of Americans (55%) think
the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict
(9% say they should be made less strict, and 36% say they should be
kept as they are). The percentage favoring stricter laws has
changed little in the past two years, but is significantly lower
than it was in the 1990s.
The issue has yet to register even as much as a blip in this
year’s presidential election campaigns. Democrats may be
hesitant to bring it up, recognizing that it doesn't always play
well for them -- even after the 2002 sniper shootings in the
Washington, D.C., area, Democratic candidates in midterm elections
tended to avoid pushing for tougher gun laws. But that could change
once the Democratic presidential nominee is known and the general
election campaign begins.
Results for other gun-related questions from the recent crime
poll are also relatively unchanged from last year: A majority of
Americans (67%) do not favor a law banning possession of
handguns from everyone except police and other authorized
persons.
According to the crime poll, gun ownership among Americans
remains in the 40% range, as 43% say they have a gun in their home
and an additional 2% own a gun kept outside of their home. The
number of Americans who say they have purchased a handgun as a
means of protecting themselves from crime is 27%. Both percentages
have shown slight increases when compared to 2000. However, earlier
data on gun ownership showed a greater percentage of Americans
owning guns than who report doing so now. Specifically, close to
half of Americans said they owned a gun in the early 1990s.
Political Polarization
But is gun control likely to be a high-profile issue in the 2004
election? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean it won’t
have implications. Certainly it is highly politicized: A majority
of self-described liberals (53%) favor banning the possession of
handguns, compared with 32% of moderates and 23% of conservatives.
Also, half of conservatives (50%) say they own guns, compared to
38% of moderates and just 33% of liberals.
Already, Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has taken criticism
from members of his own party for refusing to advocate stricter
federal gun control laws. Dean’s stance may stem from his
desire to maintain broad appeal among Democrats, an approach which
led to his now-notorious comment about wanting to be "the candidate
for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks." Indeed,
Southerners and those who live in rural areas are less likely than
others to favor banning handguns.
Still, though advocating a total ban on handguns would
alienate much of the voting public, supporting lesser restrictions
could be a politically appealing strategy. Past surveys have shown
that Americans are highly supportive of measures such as handgun
registration and background checks.
A poll taken during the last presidential election, in May 2000,
found that about two-thirds (65%) of Americans would be more likely
to vote for a candidate who favors stricter registration of all
handguns. Seventeen percent said this stance would make them less
likely to vote for a candidate and 15% said it wouldn’t make
much difference. About the same number (66%) said they would be
more likely to vote for a candidate who favors requiring gun
manufacturers to install built-in trigger locks on all
handguns.
Bottom Line
At a time when the American political arena is arguably more
divisive than it’s been in decades, it has become
increasingly difficult for presidential candidates to find and
stake out middle-ground territory. But gun control may present
presidential hopefuls from both major parties with an opportunity
to take a centrist position. Though Americans are wary of extreme
positions that may raise concern about restricting civil liberties,
past polls have demonstrated that a variety of more modest gun
control proposals have strong support -- and a majority of
Americans still feel laws regarding gun sales should be made
stricter.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017
national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 6-8, 2003. For
results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say
with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3
percentage points.
