Bush Loses Support Among Hispanics

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup survey, which includes large oversamples of blacks and Hispanics, finds President George W. Bush losing the support of Hispanic voters. In the 2000 election, former Vice President Al Gore easily won the Hispanic vote, 62% to 35%, according to the networks' exit poll. But early in his presidency, Bush seemed to overcome the Democratic tendency of most Hispanics, receiving job approval ratings from that group at the same level as from non-Hispanic whites.

In the past year, Bush's job approval rating among Hispanics dropped significantly, while approval from whites declined only modestly. Now, more Hispanics disapprove than approve of Bush's performance, and a majority indicate they will vote for Sen. John Kerry and for the Democratic representative in their districts in this fall's elections. Blacks overwhelmingly support the Kerry candidacy, disapprove of Bush, and expect to vote Democratic in their congressional districts. Blacks typically show strong support for Democratic candidates.           

The poll was conducted June 9-30, and the sample includes approximately 800 non-Hispanic whites, 800 blacks, and 500 Hispanics. Both the two-way hypothetical contest between Bush and Kerry, and the three-way contest that includes independent Ralph Nader, show a virtual tie overall, with Bush having a one-point lead in each case among registered voters. In the two-way contest, Bush enjoys a 12-point lead over Kerry among whites, 53% to 41%. But among blacks, Kerry wins overwhelmingly (81% to 12%), and among Hispanics he enjoys a 19-point lead (57% to 38%).

With Nader in the race, the overall figures still show Bush with a one-point advantage. Margins among the racial/ethnic groups vary only a little from the two-way contest. Third-party candidate Nader polls as well among blacks as does Bush.

The decline in Hispanic support for the president can be seen in the trend on Bush approval. In June 2001, Hispanics and whites expressed the same level of approval for Bush's performance. In the next two years as well, there was little difference between the two groups in their support for Bush. But the most recent survey finds a 27-point drop in Hispanic approval compared with June 2003, from 67% to 40%, at the same time that approval among whites declined only 8 points (69% to 61%).

Black support for Bush also dropped in the past year, from 32% approval to just 16% today.

The generic ballot, which asks voters which party's candidate they expect to vote for in their congressional districts, shows a moderately close contest among whites, with Republicans leading Democrats by six points (48% to 42%). However, a large majority of Hispanics say they will vote Democratic (by 60% to 35%), and overwhelmingly, blacks will vote for the Democratic candidates in their districts (83% to 14%).

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 2,250 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 9-30, 2004, including oversamples of blacks and Hispanics that are weighted to reflect their proportions in the general population. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 816 non-Hispanic whites, aged 18 and older, are based on telephone interviews conducted June 9-30, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 801 blacks, aged 18 and older, are based on telephone interviews conducted June 9-30, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

Results for the sample of 503 Hispanics, aged 18 and older, are based on telephone interviews conducted June 9-30, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points. (164 out of the 503 interviews with Hispanics were conducted in Spanish.)

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

3. Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

4. If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district --- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward --- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?

Next,

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?