With less than a month to go before Judge Samuel Alito's Supreme
Court confirmation hearings begin, pro- and anti-Alito camps are
stepping up their rhetoric. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup
poll* finds Americans continue to generally support Alito's
confirmation to the high court, but this support is becoming
slightly more polarized along party lines.
The poll, conducted Dec. 9-11, finds that 49% of Americans say they
would like to see the Senate vote in favor of Alito serving on the
Supreme Court, while 29% say they would not, and 22% have no
opinion. Gallup first asked about Alito's confirmation in November,
and opinion has not changed substantially since. In early November,
50% were in favor of the Senate confirming Alito, 25% were opposed,
and 25% had no opinion.
Public Support for Alito vs. Miers and
Roberts
Public support for Alito's confirmation to the court is slightly
higher than it was for Harriet Miers, who withdrew her nomination
after mounting criticism over her qualifications to serve on the
Supreme Court. Alito's current level of support is about the same
as John Roberts' about a month after he was nominated, though
Roberts' support reached as high as 60% prior to his
confirmation.
Forty-four percent of Americans supported Miers' confirmation
just after Bush nominated her, while 36% were opposed. Shortly
before Miers withdrew her nomination, Gallup found Americans evenly
divided: 42% were in favor and 43% were opposed to her serving on
the Supreme Court.
Across five polls conducted from the time Bush first nominated
Roberts to the time when his Senate confirmation hearings first
began, Gallup found that 56% of Americans, on average, supported
Roberts' confirmation, while 26% opposed it and 18% offered no
opinion. Support for Roberts began at 59% right after he was
nominated, but dropped to 51% in early August and stayed at 52% in
late August. In September, as Bush nominated Roberts to the chief
justice position and his confirmation hearings began, support for
Roberts serving on the court grew to 58% and then 60%.
Republicans More Likely Than Democrats to Support Alito
Confirmation
Republicans and Democrats vary significantly in their overall
level of support for Alito. More than 7 in 10 Republicans (73%) say
the Senate should vote to confirm him, while just 12% say it should
not. Democrats are much more likely to oppose (45%) than to support
(29%) Alito's confirmation.
Since Gallup first asked this question about Alito in November,
Democrats have grown slightly more negative about Alito's
confirmation. In early November, 35% of Democrats said the Senate
should confirm Alito, while 40% opposed it. Support for Alito among
Republicans shows no change since November.
There were similar partisan gaps in Americans' support of both
Roberts and Miers.
Bottom Line
Do the poll numbers reflect a nominee's chances to get confirmed
to the Supreme Court? Gallup has polled the American public about
its overall level of support for five recent Supreme Court
nominees. The current 49% support level for Alito aligns him more
closely with three individuals who were eventually confirmed --
Clarence Thomas in 1991 (an average of 52% support), Ruth Bader
Ginsburg (53%), and Roberts (56%). Alito's support is higher than
it was for two nominees who were not confirmed: Robert Bork
averaged just 35% support in 1987 and Miers averaged 43% earlier
this year.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003
national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 9-11, 2005. For
results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say
with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
