Recent Gallup Polls have shown an unmistakable decline in George W. Bush's job approval ratings. While this is unwelcome news for the president, it could be worse; the president could be in a situation in which his detractors staunchly disapprove of him and his supporters show less commitment. A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll sheds light on this issue. In addition to asking the standard job approval question about Bush, the poll asked Americans how strongly they approved or disapproved of him. Asking this question gives an indication of how much of Bush's current approval and disapproval is "soft" and presumably more susceptible to change, and how much is "firm" and probably more resistant to change.
The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Bush's job approval at 50% and disapproval at 47%. Combining this rating with the follow-up data on strength of feeling about Bush's job performance shows 30% of Americans strongly approve of Bush, 20% approve, but not strongly, 15% disapprove, but not strongly, and 32% strongly disapprove.
Put somewhat differently, 59% of those who approve of Bush do so strongly, while 41% approve, but not strongly. A slightly higher 68% of those who disapprove do so strongly, while 32% disapprove, but not strongly. So at this point in his presidency, Bush's critics are slightly more likely to hold stronger views on his performance than his supporters are.
This pair of questions was asked one other time in Bush's presidency, shortly after Sept. 11 when he had an 87% overall job approval rating. At that time, 60% approved of him strongly, 27% approved of him, but not strongly, 5% disapproved of him, but not strongly, and 5% strongly disapproved.
Differences by Subgroup
The rate of strong approval and strong disapproval of Bush is fairly similar among most demographic groups. However, when it comes to education, those with the highest educational attainment (postgraduates) are much more likely than less well-educated groups to have a strongly negative opinion of Bush. Roughly 8 in 10 postgraduates who disapprove of Bush do so strongly (of the 55% who disapprove, 45% do so strongly). However, postgraduates who give Bush positive marks are about as likely to be strong approvers as not strong approvers. By comparison, among those falling into lower education categories, 69% of those who disapprove do so strongly, while 61% of those who approve do so strongly.
Bush Job Approval by Education Level
|
High school or less |
Some college |
College graduate only |
Postgraduate |
|
|
Strongly approve |
28% |
33% |
34% |
22% |
|
Approve |
23% |
18% |
19% |
21% |
|
Disapprove |
17% |
13% |
16% |
10% |
|
Strongly disapprove |
28% |
33% |
29% |
45% |
The latest poll shows the usual partisan split in presidential approval ratings, with 86% of Republicans approving and 82% of Democrats disapproving. The strength-of-approval question finds that Republicans who approve of Bush are as likely to approve of him strongly, as Democrats who disapprove of Bush are likely to do so strongly. The result is that Republicans and Democratic opinions of Bush virtually mirror each other. Sixty-three percent of Republicans strongly approve, and 6% disapprove strongly. Sixty-two percent of Democrats strongly disapprove and 5% approve strongly.
Bush Job Approval by Partisan Affiliation
|
Democrat |
Independent |
Republican |
|
|
Strongly approve |
5% |
26% |
63% |
|
Approve |
11% |
26% |
23% |
|
Disapprove |
20% |
17% |
7% |
|
Strongly disapprove |
62% |
25% |
6% |
The differences in strength of feeling about Bush's job performance seen by party identification are also apparent according to one's personal politics. Fifty-one percent of political conservatives strongly approve of Bush, while 15% strongly disapprove. Among liberals, only 6% strongly approve, while 64% strongly disapprove. Moderates are slightly more likely to strongly disapprove (29%) than to strongly approve (23%).
Bush Job Approval by Political Ideology
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
|
Strongly approve |
6% |
23% |
51% |
|
Approve |
16% |
24% |
20% |
|
Disapprove |
13% |
22% |
10% |
|
Strongly disapprove |
64% |
29% |
15% |
Historical Comparison
Bush is slightly more likely to have strong disapprovers (68% of those who disapprove do so strongly) than strong approvers (59%). This is a reversal from his post-Sept. 11 rating in which 69% of approvers were strong in their views, and half of the relatively small group of disapprovers said they disapproved strongly. Now Bush's policies are coming under attack not only on philosophical grounds, but also because ambitious policies such as tax cuts and the war in Iraq have led to a dramatic increase in the federal budget deficit (while on many counts not achieving some of their intended goals). As such, one might speculate that Bush may be more subject to strong criticism than some of his predecessors in office, but Gallup data show this is not the case. The current President Bush's 68% ratio of strong disapproval is consistent with data for most recent presidents, and similar to what other presidents had after they had been in office for a while.
Average Ratio of Strong Approval/Disapproval to Overall Approval/Disapproval, Recent Presidents
|
Percentage who strongly |
Percentage who strongly |
|
|
Clinton |
60 |
71 |
|
George H.W. Bush |
56 |
62 |
|
Reagan |
53 |
66 |
|
Carter |
36 |
46 |
Bill Clinton's overall term average of 71% is the highest ratio of strong disapproval to overall disapproval of any recent president. What the overall average hides is the growing intensity of Clinton disapprovers over the course of his presidency. In his first term as president, an average of 66% of those who disapproved of Clinton did so strongly. But after he was re-elected, an average of 74% of those who disapproved of Clinton did so strongly.
The two recent Republican presidents, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, had average strong disapproval ratios similar to the current president's. The elder Bush's overall average is lower due to relatively soft disapproval ratios early in his term and also after the Persian Gulf War. During the latter part of his term, an average of 67% of elder Bush disapprovers were strong in their disapproval
Reagan's ratios of strong disapproval to overall disapproval were consistently in the mid-60s, with the exception of a 71% ratio just prior to the 1982 midterm election, an election in which Republicans incurred a heavy loss of congressional seats.
The one president who is most atypical is Jimmy Carter. On both the positive and negative side of the ledger, relatively few Americans had strong feelings on Carter's performance in office. Less than half of those who disapproved of Carter's handling his job as president did so strongly, and barely more than a third of those who approved of Carter felt strongly about this.
Negative Views More Strongly Held Than Positive
In general, the data show that Americans who disapprove of a president are more likely to do so strongly than are people who approve of the president. Not only is this the case for the current president, but also for his four predecessors.
The data also show that Clinton's approval ratings were relatively soft his first term in office. Only about half (51%) of those who approved of Clinton said they strongly approved of him in the four polls taken between 1994 and 1996. After he was re-elected, this changed dramatically, and the five polls taken during his second term show that 67% of Clinton approvers were strong in their opinions. So in general, Americans with both positive and negative views of Clinton held their views intensely.
Bottom Line
Much has changed in the way the public views the president over the last two years, and Bush now finds himself with the lowest approval rating of his term, and about one in three Americans say they strongly disapprove of the job he is doing. Even though more than two-thirds of Americans who disapprove of Bush hold this opinion strongly, this is a slightly better ratio than existed for Clinton, and about the same that recent Republican presidents have had.
Data for George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George H.W. Bush are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±3 percentage points.
Data for Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter are based on in-person interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±3 percentage points.
