This article is the first of a two-part series on polling
results in Turkey.
Turkey forms a bridge between two worlds -- both figuratively
and literally.
The country boasts a variety of unique distinctions. Surveys
indicate that the majority of Turks support the country's pending
application to join the European Union. Yet, while a portion of its
territory lies in Europe, the country also borders Syria, Iraq,
Iran and Azerbaijan. While more than 99% of all Turks practice
Islam, Turkey has been an active member of NATO since 1952 and
remains its only Islamic member.
Turkey was a key geographic linchpin of NATO throughout the Cold
War. More recently, Turkish air bases played an important role in
the U.N.-sanctioned ouster of Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991, as
well as in the U.S.-led offensive in Afghanistan. Any attempt to
oust Iraq's Saddam Hussein would almost certainly involve the use
of Turkish airfields -- particularly in view of Saudi Arabia's
assertion that its territory will not be used for any such
action.
The country's immediate political future is in flux. Prime
Minister Bulent Ecevit lost his parliamentary majority last month,
and an early national election has been scheduled for November. If
economic conditions worsen, recent polls suggest that his
Democratic Left Party could fail to meet even the 10% threshold
necessary to ensure continued parliamentary representation. At
least nine other political parties are now jockeying for power, and
another coalition government appears likely.
The unique political and economic conditions in Turkey today beg
the question of what it is like to be a Turk in the 21st
century. What do the residents of this strategically important
Islamic country think about their recent past, their present and
their future?
The Economy
Turkey's continuing current economic difficulties have cast a
pall over expectations for the country's near-term future. Nearly
half (49%) of Turkish adults interviewed in Gallup's 2002 poll of
nine predominantly Islamic countries say they expect that the
condition of the country's economy will worsen over the course of
the next few years, while 30% expect it to improve and 21% expect
it to remain essentially unchanged.
There is somewhat less pessimism expressed about the state of
personal economic well being over this same period. More
than a third (37%) of all Turks say they expect their own economic
lot to improve over the next few years, while 29% take the opposite
view. It is worth noting that this relatively optimistic assessment
is largely restricted to the country's younger adults. Among those
aged 40 or older, those expecting their personal economic fortune
to improve over the next few years (27%) are outnumbered by those
who say they think their personal economic condition will
deteriorate (40%).
Quality of Life and Expectations for the Future
When Turks are asked how they rate their own personal quality of
life, the typical rating given is a moderate 5.0 on a 10-point
scale (one which ranges from the "worst possible life" to the "best
possible life you can imagine"). Asked how they would have rated
their own quality of life five years earlier, the average response
is that they would have rated it a 6.3 on this same scale. In other
words, on average, Turks perceive their quality of life to have
declined significantly, if not drastically, over the past five
years.
Looking to the future, Turks expect a modest improvement in the
quality of their lives five years hence. The average Turk expects
to rate his or her quality of life at 5.5 on this scale five years
from now -- an improvement from today's 5.0 rating, but still lower
than the average rating of five years ago (6.3).
As with personal economic expectations, however, this optimism
is largely restricted to the country's younger adults. Adults under
the age of 30 say they expect their quality of life to improve from
an average of 5.3 to 6.4 over the next five years. Those in their
30s expect a more modest improvement -- from 4.7 to 5.2. Those aged
40 or older, however, expect no improvement at all in quality of
life over the coming five years (4.8, 4.8).
Part II of this series will focus on Turks' views of the
religious landscape in their country.
