Who is going to win the election?
The answer to that question is still unclear. The data suggest that George W. Bush has the edge in the popular vote at this point, but the potential outcome in the Electoral College is unknown and unpredictable.
The Oct. 22-24 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that Bush leads John Kerry by a 49% to 47% margin among registered voters, and by a 51% to 46% margin among likely voters. These numbers mark a slight improvement in Kerry's position since Gallup's Oct. 14-16 poll.
Gallup analysis indicates that the race in the key showdown states -- those in which neither Bush nor Al Gore won by more than five percentage points in 2000 -- is very close, tilting toward Bush by only one point. While this type of amalgamation of the data from all of the showdown states, albeit on a proportional basis, does not give the detail state-by-state polls would provide, it certainly suggests that a Bush popular vote win and a Kerry Electoral College win (the reverse of the controversial outcome of the 2000 contest) is within the realm of possibility.
Analyzing the Electoral College situation is not straightforward. It is difficult to figure out precisely where things stand except to say, as I mentioned, that the potential is there for a close election resulting in a win for either side.
Various organizations and intrepid analysts have attempted to review polling from the key battleground states and estimate what would happen in the Electoral College if the election were held today.
An analysis done by the Los Angeles Times suggests that many states' votes are still up for grabs. Of those states that the LA Times staff is willing to predict will go to either candidate, the tally is 177 electoral votes for Bush and 153 for Kerry (270 are needed to win). The Web site www.realclearpolitics.com has averaged every available state poll, and comes up with current estimates that Bush has 234 electoral votes compared with Kerry's 211 -- with the rest still undecided. The Hotline, a political newsletter published by the National Journal, gives Kerry the nod with 243 votes to Bush's 234.
The bottom line out of all of this is the obvious conclusion that the outcome of the Electoral College vote cannot be called at this point in time. There are just too many states that are close -- even a week before the election -- to allow a definitive estimate of who is going to win.
Are significant changes possible between now and Election Day?
Yes. Change -- even significant change -- can occur almost up to Election Day itself. Bush was ahead of Gore by four or five percentage points about one week before the 2000 election, while the election resulted in a 48% to 48% tie (although Gore actually got more of the popular vote, the national percentages rounded to 48% to 48%). The shape of the election changed very dramatically in the final days of the 1980 race. Incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by three points in an Oct. 24-26, 1980, Gallup Poll. Reagan charged ahead near the end, and ended up beating Carter by a 10-point margin (51% to 41%).
How is President Bush's job approval rating?
Bush job approval is holding at 51%, slightly above the 50% mark that symbolically separates successful incumbent presidents from unsuccessful ones. Like so much else in this election, this puts Bush in a "gray zone" -- between the approval ratings of incumbents who breezed through to re-election and those who went down in defeat.
Is Bush retaining his perceived strength on terrorism and leadership?
Yes. Gallup's weekend poll shows that Bush beats Kerry by 19 points on the leadership dimension -- 57% of Americans think the phrase, "is a strong and decisive leader," applies more to Bush, and only 38% say it applies more to Kerry.
Additionally, the poll shows that 49% of likely voters say that "leadership skills and vision" will be more important to their votes this year than "where the candidates stand on issues" (39% of likely voters). In contrast, in October 2000, likely voters were more likely to say that stances on the issues were most important. This year's tilt toward leadership over issues benefits Bush, given his strong positioning on the leadership dimension.
On domestic issues, Kerry has been at least slightly better positioned than Bush all year. It is safe to assume that if the election were more directly focused on what is happening at home, Kerry would be in a better position. But despite Kerry's continued attacks on Bush's handling of the Iraq war, the president has actually increased his lead slightly over Kerry as the candidate best able to handle the situation in Iraq. Bush also continues to have a clear advantage over Kerry on the issue of terrorism.
We have heard a lot about the "gender gap." Which other demographic groups are split in their support for the two candidates?
Bush continues to do best among the following subgroups: men, Americans living in rural areas, those living in the South, those who are married, and weekly churchgoers.
Kerry does best among women, nonwhites, 18- to 29-year-olds, people living in the East and Midwest, those living in urban areas, those with postgraduate degrees, low-income Americans, unmarried Americans, and those who seldom or never attend church.
Do Americans remain highly focused on this election?
Registration levels are higher for this election than in previous elections, and every other indicator we have suggests extraordinary levels of attention, interest, and emotional attachment to the presidential campaign this year.
It's a highly certain prediction that voter turnout this year will be higher than that of any recent election.
How will this higher voter turnout affect the outcome of the election?
The effect of higher turnout is a major unknown at this point. Gallup's voter models predict that those who are most likely to vote, in general, are slightly more oriented toward Bush than the general pool of all registered voters. That's why Bush has a two-point lead among registered voters and a five-point lead among likely voters.
Kerry will in general benefit from a higher turnout, because the likely voter pool will mathematically become closer to the pool of all registered voters as turnout increases. At Gallup, we have taken estimates of higher turnout into account, and our current likely voter model assumes a turnout of 60% (compared with the 50% turnout we assumed in 2000).
We will continue to monitor our internal indicators of turnout before making our final trial heat prediction after the completion of next weekend's polling.
What do you know about "early voting" this year?
Nine percent of registered voters claim they have already voted in this election, and another 13% say they plan to vote before Election Day. That leaves only 76% who say they will vote in the traditional way on Election Day itself.
At this point, there is little difference in the voting preferences of the early voters compared with those who have yet to vote.
Do either Bush or Kerry have a more positive image than the other?
No. Bush and Kerry have virtually identical images at this point: Bush with 53% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings, Kerry with 52% to 44%. Bush's high point this year came in early January, after the capture of Saddam Hussein in mid-December, when he had a 65% favorable, 35% unfavorable rating. Kerry's highest rating came in late January/early February, when 61% rated him favorably, 23% rated him unfavorably, and 16% did not know enough to rate him.
There is no contest when it comes to a comparison of the images of the candidates' wives. First Lady Laura Bush has a strong 73% favorable, 16% unfavorable rating. Teresa Heinz Kerry, on the other hand, is in negative territory, with a 38% favorable, 40% unfavorable rating. This is the first time Heinz Kerry has received more unfavorable than favorable ratings in the five times Gallup has measured her image since April of this year.
Most of the candidates' speeches and commercials in this campaign are aimed at attacking the other candidate. What do Americans think about negative campaigning?
Americans view the 2004 campaign as more negative than the 2000 campaign. Forty-eight percent of Americans say that the tone of the presidential campaign so far this year has been "mostly negative," with the rest saying the campaign has been "about equally positive and negative" (37%), or "mostly positive" (13%). In October 2000, only 15% of Americans said that the Gore-Bush campaign had been mostly negative.
Similarly, the percentage of Americans who say they are satisfied with the way the two campaigns have been conducted so far this year is slightly lower than the percentage who were satisfied with the Bush and Gore campaigns in 2000.
A third of Americans believe that the media coverage of this campaign has been biased in favor of Kerry. Only 17% say that it has been biased in favor of Bush. This is a continuation of a long-standing trend by which the public is more likely to view the media as too liberal than as too conservative.