GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- George W. Bush improved upon the already favorable impressions that voters have of him during and immediately after the Republican Party convention in Philadelphia. A Gallup poll conducted August 4-5 -- the weekend following the GOP convention -- shows that Bush enjoys significant advantages over Gore on a variety of personality characteristics and issues that may influence the outcome of this year's presidential election. The ratings discussed here probably represent the high point for the Bush campaign, given the concentrated media focus on the GOP during its convention. Bush's challenge will be to maintain as much of this perceptual advantage as he can while Al Gore and the Democrats take their turn on the national stage at their convention in Los Angeles next week.
Bush Viewed as Strong Leader
Americans believe both major party candidates for president have
the "personality and leadership qualities a president should have,"
though many more believe this of Bush (71%) than do of Gore (51%).
The 71% rating on this measure for Bush on the heels of his
convention represents a high for the campaign, as Bush had been
scoring in the low- to mid-60s on this measure earlier this year.
Gore's ratings have remained fairly constant near 50% throughout
the campaign.
Americans also give Bush an advantage on each of nine more specific aspects of character, with Bush's lead ranging from a low of nine percentage points on "generally agrees with you on the issues you care about" to 32 points on "is a strong and decisive leader." Bush has enjoyed at least a 20-point advantage throughout this year on being a "strong and decisive leader," which 47% of Americans in a July 25-26 Gallup poll said was an "extremely important" characteristic. Only "honest and trustworthy" (55%) and "can manage the government effectively" (48%) are viewed as more important by the public. Bush currently holds a 16-point advantage over Gore on honesty and a 20-point advantage on his ability to manage the government effectively.
Across the nine characteristics measured, Bush's advantage over Gore increased by an average of nine points from just prior to the Republican convention (July 24-25) to immediately following it (Aug 4-5). Bush gained the most ground on having a vision for the country's future, increasing his lead over Gore from seven points to 21 points, a net gain of 14 points. He also made substantial improvement in terms of being "someone you would be proud to have as president" (increasing his lead over Gore from seven to 18 points), caring about the needs of people (increased lead by 10 points), and being a strong and decisive leader (increasing his lead by 10 points). A key test of Gore's viability going into the fall will be the degree to which he manages to change current perceptions on these characteristics during his time in the spotlight over the next several days.
National Defense Bush's Best Issue
Bush also enjoys substantial leads on several issues likely to play
a role in determining the election outcome. In fact, of 11 issues
tested in the August 4-5 poll, Bush leads Gore on nine and is tied
on another. Americans view Bush as better able to handle national
defense, by a 62% to 29% margin over Gore. Defense has been an
issue where Republicans typically have an advantage over Democrats
in the eyes of Americans. Bush also leads Gore significantly on
taxes -- another strong Republican issue -- by a 54% to 35%
margin.
More importantly, however, at this stage of the campaign Bush outperforms Gore on several issues where Democrats often perform well, such as Social Security (14-point lead over Gore), education (nine-point lead) and Medicare (five-point lead). The two candidates are tied on the abortion issue, with 43% of Americans thinking each candidate is better equipped to handle that issue. The only issue where Gore currently leads Bush is on race relations, where Gore has a 46% to 41% edge.
Just as occurred on the character ratings, the public's impressions of Bush's ability to handle key issues increased substantially following the Republican convention. On each of 10 issues measured both before and after the convention, Bush gained ground on Gore by an average of about eight percentage points per issue. Bush's biggest gains were made on Social Security (where he gained 16 points on Gore), Medicare (15 points), and Education (11 points). As is the case for the character ratings discussed above, Gore's ability to gain ground on Bush during the Los Angeles convention on these issues may well foretell the structure of the campaign as it begins in earnest after Labor Day.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national samples of 1,035 national adults, 18 years and
older, conducted July 25-16, 2000, and 1,051 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted August 4-5, 2000. For results based on these
samples, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or
minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that [ROTATE: Al Gore/George Bush] has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have? How about…?
A. Al Gore
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||
|
(LV) 2000 Aug 4-5 |
51 |
45 |
4 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jul 25-26 |
49 |
49 |
2 |
|
(LV) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
51 |
44 |
5 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 |
50 |
47 |
3 |
|
National Adults |
|||
|
(NA) 2000 Aug 4-5 |
53 |
43 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2000 Jul 25-26 |
52 |
44 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
52 |
41 |
7 |
|
(NA) 2000 Jan 17-19 |
52 |
43 |
5 |
B. George W. Bush
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||
|
(LV) 2000 Aug 4-5 |
71 |
26 |
3 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jul 25-26 |
65 |
31 |
4 |
|
(LV) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
62 |
31 |
7 |
|
(LV) 2000 Jan 17-19 |
64 |
32 |
4 |
|
National Adults |
|||
|
(NA) 2000 Aug 4-5 |
70 |
26 |
4 |
|
(NA) 2000 Jul 25-26 |
62 |
32 |
6 |
|
(NA) 2000 Apr 7-9 |
61 |
30 |
9 |
|
(NA) 2000 Jan 17-19 |
65 |
28 |
7 |
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Al Gore or more to George W. Bush. How about… [RANDOM ORDER]
A. Shares your values
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
38 |
51 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
41 |
46 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
40 |
43 |
4 |
7 |
6 |
B. Cares about the needs of people like you
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
39 |
49 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
43 |
43 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
42 |
39 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
|
1999 Jun 4-5 |
44 |
44 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
C. Is a strong and decisive leader
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
28 |
60 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
32 |
54 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
30 |
50 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
|
1999 Jun 4-5 |
30 |
59 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
D. Generally agrees with you on issues you care about
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
40 |
49 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
42 |
45 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
|
1999 Jun 4-5 |
47 |
40 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
E. Is someone you would be proud to have as president
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
34 |
52 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
39 |
46 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
F. Can manage government effectively
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
33 |
53 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
37 |
49 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
40 |
43 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
G. Has vision for the country's future
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
32 |
53 |
9 |
3 |
3 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
38 |
45 |
7 |
3 |
7 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
38 |
42 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
H. Is honest and trustworthy
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
32 |
48 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
37 |
44 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
I. Understands complex issues
|
|
|
BOTH/ SAME |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
37 |
47 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
41 |
43 |
6 |
2 |
8 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
41 |
36 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
(vol.) Volunteered response
SUMMARY OF GORE/BUSH ON CHARACTER ADVANTAGE
|
Gore |
Bush |
Advantage |
|
|
Generally agrees with you on issues you care about |
40% |
49 |
+9 |
|
Cares about the needs of people like you |
39% |
49 |
+10 |
|
Understands complex issues |
37% |
47 |
+10 |
|
Shares your values |
38% |
51 |
+13 |
|
Is honest and trustworthy |
32% |
48 |
+16 |
|
Is someone you would be proud to have as president |
34% |
52 |
+18 |
|
Can manage the government effectively |
33% |
53 |
+20 |
|
Has a vision for the country's future |
32% |
53 |
+21 |
|
Is a strong and decisive leader |
28% |
60 |
+32 |
|
- Advantage indicates Gore lead |
|||
SUMMARY OF GORE/BUSH ON CHARACTER ADVANTAGE, PRE- TO POST-CONVENTION
|
Pre- July |
Post- Aug |
Change |
|
|
Generally agrees with you on issues you care about |
+3 |
+9 |
+6 |
|
Cares about the needs of people like you |
0 |
+10 |
+10 |
|
Understands complex issues |
+2 |
+10 |
+8 |
|
Shares your values |
+5 |
+13 |
+8 |
|
Is honest and trustworthy |
+7 |
+16 |
+9 |
|
Is someone you would be proud to have as president |
+7 |
+18 |
+11 |
|
Can manage the government effectively |
+12 |
+20 |
+8 |
|
Has a vision for the country's future |
+7 |
+21 |
+14 |
|
Is a strong and decisive leader |
+22 |
+32 |
+10 |
|
Average Change |
+9 |
||
|
- Advantage indicates Gore lead |
|||
SUMMARY OF CHARACTERISTIC IMPORTANCE
|
July 24-25, 2000 |
Extremely important |
Very |
Extremely/ |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
Can manage the government effectively |
48 |
47 |
95 |
|
Is a strong and decisive leader |
47 |
47 |
94 |
|
Is honest and trustworthy |
55 |
37 |
92 |
|
Has a vision for the country's future |
44 |
47 |
91 |
|
Understands complex issues |
40 |
50 |
90 |
|
Cares about the needs of people like you |
42 |
45 |
87 |
|
Is someone you would be proud to have as president |
41 |
45 |
86 |
|
Shares your values |
32 |
43 |
75 |
|
Generally agrees with you on issues you care about |
24 |
43 |
67 |
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Al Gore or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about… [RANDOM ORDER]
A. The economy
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
39 |
52 |
3 |
6 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
40 |
47 |
3 |
10 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
44 |
43 |
4 |
9 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
46 |
45 |
4 |
5 |
|
1999 Jun 11-13 |
35 |
55 |
2 |
8 |
B. Taxes
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
35 |
54 |
3 |
8 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
36 |
51 |
3 |
10 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
38 |
47 |
3 |
12 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
41 |
48 |
3 |
8 |
C. Social Security
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
38 |
52 |
3 |
7 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
45 |
43 |
2 |
10 |
D. Medicare
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
42 |
47 |
3 |
8 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
49 |
39 |
2 |
10 |
E. Healthcare
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
43 |
46 |
4 |
7 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
47 |
41 |
3 |
9 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
49 |
37 |
3 |
11 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
54 |
34 |
3 |
9 |
F. Education
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
41 |
50 |
3 |
6 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
45 |
43 |
4 |
8 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
46 |
41 |
5 |
8 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
48 |
41 |
5 |
6 |
G. The gun issue
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
39 |
50 |
3 |
8 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
37 |
46 |
3 |
14 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
37 |
43 |
4 |
16 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
44 |
42 |
2 |
12 |
H. Abortion
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
43 |
43 |
3 |
11 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
44 |
38 |
3 |
15 |
I. National defense
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
29 |
62 |
2 |
7 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
31 |
58 |
2 |
9 |
J. Handling the budget surplus
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
38 |
51 |
3 |
8 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
38 |
49 |
2 |
11 |
K. Race relations
|
Gore |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
46 |
41 |
4 |
9 |
(vol.) Volunteered response
SUMMARY OF GORE/BUSH ADVANTAGE ON ISSUES
|
Gore |
Bush |
Advantage |
|
|
Race relations |
46% |
41 |
-5 |
|
Abortion |
43% |
43 |
0 |
|
Healthcare |
43% |
46 |
+3 |
|
Medicare |
42% |
47 |
+5 |
|
Education |
41% |
50 |
+9 |
|
The gun issue |
39% |
50 |
+11 |
|
The economy |
39% |
52 |
+13 |
|
Handling the budget surplus |
38% |
51 |
+13 |
|
Social Security |
38% |
52 |
+14 |
|
Taxes |
35% |
54 |
+19 |
|
National defense |
29% |
62 |
+33 |
|
- Advantage indicates Gore lead |
|||
SUMMARY OF GORE/BUSH ADVANTAGE ON ISSUES, PRE- TO POST-CONVENTION
|
Pre- July |
Post- Aug |
Change |
|
|
Abortion |
-6 |
0 |
+6 |
|
Healthcare |
-6 |
+3 |
+9 |
|
Medicare |
-10 |
+5 |
+15 |
|
Education |
-2 |
+9 |
+11 |
|
The gun issue |
+9 |
+11 |
+2 |
|
The economy |
+7 |
+13 |
+6 |
|
Handling the budget surplus |
+11 |
+13 |
+2 |
|
Social Security |
-2 |
+14 |
+16 |
|
Taxes |
+15 |
+19 |
+4 |
|
National defense |
+27 |
+33 |
+6 |
|
Average Change |
+7.7 |
||
|
+ Advantage indicates Gore lead |
|||