Politics

Gallup Daily: Obama Retains Lead, 48% to 41%

Second day with Obama holding a significant lead over McCain

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has stretched his lead over John McCain among national registered voters to seven percentage points, 48% to 41%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 23-25.

This represents a continuation of Obama's frontrunner position in Gallup's Friday report, when he led McCain by six points, 47% to 41%. Earlier this week, Obama and McCain were separated by just two to four points, but that was before the extensive U.S. news coverage of the last leg of Obama's foreign tour. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Obama's particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday's tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama's speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday -- the only major public event of the trip -- and coverage of Obama's meetings with the heads of state in France and Germany may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor.

Notably, Obama's current seven-point lead over McCain ties his widest since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election in early March, and was achieved only once previously. He led McCain by seven points immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, that proved to be a short-lived bounce, with Obama holding a six- to seven-point lead for only three days before it dropped back to two to three points.

While Obama may have thus far received a modest bounce from the massive publicity surrounding this week's trip, his ability to sustain or build on that -- as opposed to having it dissipate along with news coverage of the trip -- could hinge on how the major U.S. media outlets and conservative vs. liberal commentators portray his performance abroad in the coming days. -- Lydia Saad

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from July 23-25, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,710 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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