U.S. Economic Confidence Index Continues Downward, at -14
Economy

U.S. Economic Confidence Index Continues Downward, at -14

by Justin McCarthy

Story Highlights

  • Index at lowest level since late September 2014
  • Current conditions score down four points from week prior

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup's Economic Confidence Index continued its gradual, downward slide, reaching -14 for the week ending July 26. This represents a 10-month low for the index.

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index -- Weekly Averages Since July 2014

Last week's figure continues the generally downward trend that began in late January. At that point, the index peaked at +5 -- the highest weekly score Gallup has recorded since it began tracking economic confidence daily in 2008. Weekly figures have consistently been in negative territory since mid-March and have drifted gradually lower in recent months.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate the current economy and whether they feel the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, if all Americans rate the economy as excellent or good and improving; and a theoretical minimum of -100, if all Americans rate the economy as poor and getting worse.

The current conditions score fell four points from the week prior to its current score of -9, accounting for the entire decline in the overall index. This was the result of 23% of Americans saying the economy is "excellent" or "good" and 32% saying it is "poor." Meanwhile, 39% of Americans said the economy is "getting better," while 57% said it is "getting worse." This resulted in an economic outlook score of -18, unchanged from the previous week.

Economic Confidence Index Components -- Weekly Averages Since July 2014

Bottom Line

Though Americans' confidence in the national economy has skewed negative for six months now, the recent drop of the current conditions component comes on the heels of a new path for solving the Greek debt crisis and amid a tumultuous period for Chinese stocks. The instability abroad could be fueling Americans' doubts about the health of the U.S. economy, not to mention that the Dow closed lower several days in a row last week.

These data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 20-26, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 3,540 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

Learn more about how Gallup Daily tracking works.

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