PRINCETON, NJ -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied at 47% in the preferences of national Democrats for their party's presidential nomination.
This is based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 30-May 2, and is the 10th consecutive day the Democratic candidates have been statistically tied in national preferences. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
There has been no evidence of significant momentum for either candidate since Obama's lead in early April collapsed following Clinton's victory in the April 22 Pennsylvania primary and amidst renewed controversy over Obama's association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. However, that could change if the next wave of upcoming primaries delivers any major surprises or otherwise clarifies whether Clinton or Obama is the stronger candidate.
The four delegates chosen Saturday in Guam's Democratic caucuses aren't important to either candidate's delegate count. However, the fact that both campaigns are committing resources to this tiny election -- and that the national media is providing unprecedented coverage of it -- suggests the winner of this U.S. territory will be able to claim some limited bragging rights leading into Tuesday's major primaries in North Carolina and Indiana.
As Gallup reported Friday, John McCain has now moved into a significant lead over Obama among national registered voters for the general election, while he about ties with Clinton. Today's figures, based on interviewing conducted April 28-May 2, remain identical, with McCain leading Obama 48% to 42%, and McCain edging out Clinton by one point, 46% to 45%.
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Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from April 30-May 2, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,227 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from April 28-May 2, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,399 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.
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